Bitcoin Demand Falls To Lowest in 27 Months — Big BTC Price Dump Next?

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has declined by over 25% almost two months after establishing a record high at around $110,000. The cryptocurrency’s sharp correction has coincided with a decline in its “apparent demand.”

What does it mean for Bitcoin prices in the coming weeks? Let’s examine.

What is Bitcoin Apprent Demand — And How Does It Impact BTC Prices?

As of March 17, the 30-day average Bitcoin Apparent Demand had fallen to over -152,000 BTC, its lowest level since December 2023, as shown below via the red area.

For the unversed, the “apparent demand” is an on-chain metric that gauges the balance between new Bitcoin production (mining issuance) and changes in long-term holdings (coins inactive for over a year).

Specifically, it measures the difference between the daily amount of newly mined Bitcoin and the net change in the supply of Bitcoin that has remained unmoved for more than a year.

That said, a positive apparent demand indicates that the reduction in long-term holdings exceeds new production, suggesting increased market demand.

Conversely, a negative value implies that new production surpasses the reduction in long-term holdings, indicating decreased demand.

Important Observations to Notice:

 

• Negative apparent demand historically aligns with price corrections but often precedes Bitcoin bottoms.
• Sustained negative demand (2015, 2018, 2022) coincided with deep bear markets, while short-term dips (2016, 2020) were part of regular pullbacks.
• Bitcoin’s current dip in apparent demand started in 2025, so it remains short-term.
• Traders should look for signs of demand recovery—or the lack of it—to gauge Bitcoin’s future direction.
• A short-term dip may lead to a Bitcoin price rebound.
• Conversely, sustained declines in apparent demand may pose further downside risks.

Bitcoin Whale Data Raises Bullish Hopes

On the brighter side, Bitcoin whale holdings have climbed to their highest level since March 2021, suggesting that large investors are accumulating Bitcoin despite recent price volatility.

Historically, whale accumulation has preceded strong price rebounds. In early 2019, Bitcoin bottomed out near $3,200 before entering an extended rally, coinciding with an increase in whale balances.

Similarly, in mid-2020, whale accumulation surged before Bitcoin broke past $20,000 for the first time. The current uptrend in whale holdings hints at growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value, even as short-term demand metrics remain weak.

The combination of increasing whale holdings and weak apparent demand suggests that Bitcoin may be in a mid-cycle accumulation phase, where large investors are positioning ahead of the next leg up.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: BTC is Holding Parabolic Uptrend

Bitcoin remains in a parabolic uptrend on the weekly chart, with its price above the critical green support line. The structure suggests that the macro bull trend is intact despite recent volatility.

BTC has successfully retested this trendline, confirming it as new support after previously serving as resistance. Historically, holding above key breakout levels has led to continuation rallies, reinforcing the case for further upside.

With resistance at $90,000-$100,000, Bitcoin’s next test will be reclaiming higher levels. A sustained move above $90,000 could pave the way for a retest of $100,000, while failure to hold $80,000 may lead to deeper consolidation.

The bull cycle remains in play as Bitcoin respects its parabolic structure.