On Thursday, September 5, BTC slid by 3.15%, reversing a 0.85% gain from the previous session, closing at $56,190. Significantly, BTC slid to a session low of $55,664.
US labor market data weighed on BTC demand. The ADP reported a 99k increase in employment for August, the lowest since January 2021. The markets expected a 145k increase.
The weaker-than-expected numbers impacted demand for riskier assets. Investors were cautious ahead of Friday’s crucial US Jobs Report. On Thursday, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 saw losses of 0.54% and 0.30%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.25%.
Lingering fears of a US hard landing (recession) also affected market sentiment despite the steady ISM Services PMI, further affecting market risk sentiment.
On Wednesday, September 4, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows of $37.2 million, extending its outflows streak to six sessions. Waning BTC demand through the spot ETF market contributed to the negative sentiment.
The US BTC-spot ETF market faces the prospect of a seven-day net outflow streak on Thursday, September 5. According to Farside Investors,
Excluding iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETFs saw $211.1 million in net outflows on Thursday.
On Friday, September 6, the heavily anticipated US Jobs Report could dictate near-term BTC price trends. Economists expect the US unemployment rate to fall from 4.3% in July to 4.2% in August. Additionally, economists predict nonfarm payrolls will increase by 160k in August, following a 114k rise in July.
Positive US labor market data could signal a no-landing scenario and sink bets on a 50-basis point September Fed rate cut. Easing fear of a US recession may support a BTC move toward $60,000. However, buyer appetite for US BTC-spot ETFs must improve to drive BTC demand.
Weak numbers and an extension of outflows from the US BTC-spot ETF market may tilt the supply-demand balance in favor of supply. BTC could drop toward $50,000 in an extended outflow backdrop.
Investors should stay vigilant as shifting sentiment and supply-demand trends may affect BTC demand. Stay updated with our latest news and analysis to manage exposure to BTC and the broader crypto market.
BTC sat well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bearish price signals.
A return to $57,500 would support a move toward the 200-day EMA. Furthermore, a break above the 200-day EMA could give the bulls a run at the $60,365 resistance level and 50-day EMA. Selling pressure could intensify at the $60,365 resistance level as the 50-day EMA is confluent with the resistance level.
The US Job Report, sentiment toward the Fed rate path, and BTC-spot ETF market flow trends require consideration.
Conversely, a break below $55,000 could give the bears a run at the $52,884 support level.
With a 39.00 14-day RSI reading, BTC could drop below $55,000 before entering oversold territory.
ETH remained well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bearish price signals.
An ETH break above the $2,403 resistance level would support a return to $2,500. Furthermore, a breakout from the $2,403 resistance level could give the bulls a run at the $2,664 resistance level.
US ETH-spot ETF market-related updates also require consideration.
Conversely, an ETH drop below the September 4 low of $2,311 may signal a drop toward the $2,124 support level.
The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 36.73, suggests an ETH drop to the $2,124 support level before entering oversold territory.
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