Bitcoin Price Targets $70k Breakout as CME Open Interest Hits $11.6B All-Time High

Bitcoin Price Analysis:

Bitcoin price opened trading at $67,600 on Thursday Oct 17, rising 16% in the last 7-days to reach a new 80-day peak. Derivatives markets data shows US-based corporate investors trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) have increased BTC investments to a new all-time high of $11.6 billion this week.

With technical indicators also flashing bullish signals, is BTC price on the verge of reaching a new global peak in the weeks ahead?

Bitcoin Open Interest on CME Hit All-time High of $11.6B

Bitcoin (BTC) hit another major price milestone this week, propelled by positive macroeconomic indicators. After a turbulent start to October, BTC has been on an uptrend since October 3.

Notably, BTC opened trading at $67,600 on Thursday, October 17, reflecting 16% gains within the 14-day timeframe. This also represents Bitcoin’s highest opening price in 80-days.

However, looking beyond the price action, Bitcoin has also recorded another major milestone in terms institutional interest. On October 16, data pulled from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), a trading platform largely used by US based corporate investors, Bitcoin has witnessed an unprecedented levels capital inflows.

Recent data shows CME Bitcoin futures open interest has reached an all-time high of $11.6 billion, signaling the possibility of a further rally in BTC price towards $70,000.

This comes just days after Blackrock CEO, Larry Fink has madeemphatic bullish comments regarding Bitcoin long-term prospects as an asset class, during the global investment giants Q3 Earnings call.

On Tuesday, reports confirmed that cash-margin open interest for Bitcoin futures on the CME had soared to a record high, with CME now accounting for 40% of total market open interest.

Open interest measures the total number of active Bitcoin futures contracts at any point in time. Over the past five trading days, CME saw a significant increase, with an additional 25,125 BTC in open contracts—a figure not seen in recent years.

The last time such a substantial increase in CME Bitcoin futures occurred was in June 2023, when open interest jumped by 26,525 BTC, coinciding with BlackRock’s filing for the iShares Bitcoin Trust, a spot Bitcoin ETF. During that period, Bitcoin’s price surged from $25,000 to $30,000.

In another case, during October 2023, an increase of 25,115 BTC in open interest occurred as CME overtook Binance to become the largest Bitcoin futures exchange. Following that, Bitcoin’s price climbed from $25,000 to over $40,000 by the end of the year.

Hence, Bitcoin’s steady consolidation above the $67,000 support suggests that this bullish trend may repeat, potentially propelling BTC above the $70,000 level in the coming days.

K33 Research Analysts Hit that Large Institutional Players Dominating the CME Surge

Analysts at K33 Research, a Norwegian crypto broker, have identified large institutional investors and direct market participants as the main driving force behind this new surge in Bitcoin open interest on CME.

According to Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33 Research, this uptick is being fueled by active traders rather than inflows into futures-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like the ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO).

“The growth is clearly driven by active and direct market participants—not inflows to futures-based ETFs,” said Lunde.

CME data shows that direct participants currently hold 85,623 BTC in futures contracts, a similar figure to what was recorded in March 2024 when Bitcoin neared its all-time high.

Meanwhile, leveraged products have seen a steady decline throughout the year. The 1x leveraged ETF now holds just 31,752 BTC, and while the 2x leveraged ETF saw a surge in March, growth has since plateaued.

This trend suggests that speculation and high-leverage trading, which were key drivers earlier in the year, are no longer the dominant forces in the market.

Instead, more conservative institutional players are now taking the lead, positioning themselves for a more stable, long-term growth strategy in Bitcoin futures.

Based on the current dynamics, Bitcoin price now appears poised for a more stable price gains, and less susceptible to rapid corrections that often blighted previous bull cycles.

BTC Price Forecast: Two Technical Signals Point to $70k Breakout

Bitcoin is now showing signs that a breakout toward $70,000 may be imminent, driven by two key technical indicators on the daily chart.

First, the recent price action has led to a 16.18% surge over the last seven days, moving BTC from $58,000 to its current level around $67,400.

This rally has placed Bitcoin firmly above key pivot points, with immediate resistance now lying at $68,900. Should Bitcoin break this level, it could pave the way for a swift move toward $70,000 and beyond.

The Stochastic RSI is currently overbought, with values exceeding 98. This suggests that while momentum is strongly bullish, traders should be cautious of a potential short-term pullback or consolidation. However, as long as BTC stays above the pivot level of $60,784, the bullish structure remains intact, allowing for further gains.

A breakout above the $68,900 resistance, especially if accompanied by high volume, could trigger a rally toward the psychological $70,000 mark. If this occurs, the next resistance would likely be around $72,000.

However, on the downside, bull traders should watch out for the immediate $64,000 support level, as a breakdown below could put bears on the front-foot.