Dax Index News: Forecast Wavers as Traders Weigh Middle East Risks and US Data

DAX Tumbles as Israel-Iran Conflict Triggers Flight-to-Safety

Global equity markets reeled as Israel attacked Iran. The DAX slid 1.07% on Friday, June 13, following Thursday’s 0.74% loss, closing at 23,516. Notably, the index extended its losing streak to six sessions.

Israel launched multiple attacks against Iran’s nuclear and missile-factory facilities overnight on June 12, fueling fears of crude oil supply disruption and a broader regional conflict.

WTI crude oil soared more than 10% in early trading on June 13, striking a high of $74.615 before closing the session up 5.98% to $71.395. A prolonged rise in crude oil prices may fuel inflationary pressures, potentially unraveling central bank plans to ease restrictive policy measures further.

Tech and Auto Stocks Tumble

German auto and tech stocks faced heavy selling pressure. The escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict and President Trump’s plan for unilateral tariffs weighed on sentiment. Infineon Technologies and SAP dropped 0.41% and 2.45%, respectively. Volkswagen slid 2.24%, with BMW, Mercedes-Benz Group, and Porsche also closing in negative territory.

In contrast, Rheinmetall extended its gains from Thursday, advancing 2.72% as Middle East tensions boosted demand for defense stocks.

Wall Street Slides as Iran Retaliates

US markets tumbled as Iran retaliated swiftly after Israel’s June 12 strikes, escalating tensions on June 13. The Dow slid 1.79%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 dropped 1.30% and 1.13%, respectively.

Iran’s response raised concerns about a prolonged conflict, incentivizing the Iranians to block the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil supply channel.

Upbeat US economic indicators failed to shift sentiment. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 52.2 in May to 60.5 in June, suggesting a pickup in consumer spending. Given private consumption contributes over 60% to US GDP, rising spending trends could ease recessionary fears.

US Manufacturing in Focus

Later in the European session on Monday, June 16, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index will draw interest as trade tensions simmer. Economists expect the index to increase from -9.2 in May to -6.7 in June. A higher print may support a positive economic outlook, potentially boosting demand for risk assets, including DAX-listed stocks. Conversely, a sharp decline may revive US recession fears, impacting sentiment.

While Monday’s economic data needs consideration, trade developments and Middle East-related news will likely impact risk sentiment more.

Outlook: Key Catalysts for the DAX

The DAX’s near-term price trajectory hinges on the Middle East developments, trade headlines, US data, and ECB commentary.

• Bullish Case: Progress toward a US-EU trade deal, easing Middle East tensions, strong manufacturing data, and dovish ECB signals could send the DAX above 24,000.
• Bearish Case: Rising geopolitical risks, weak US data, or hawkish ECB rhetoric may pull the DAX toward 23,000.

At the time of writing on June 16, the DAX futures dropped 51 points, while the Nasdaq 100 mini gained 33 points, signaling a choppy start to the week. WTI crude oil rose 1.14% to $73.81 in early trading.

Over the weekend, the Kobeissi Letter reported that Iran was willing to end strikes on Israel if Israel ceased attacks on Iran shortly after President Trump stated a deal could easily be reached. However, Iran later reportedly told mediators its not open to ceasefire talks of Israel continues to attack, fueling uncertainty about a swift end to the conflict.

Technical Setup Suggests Cautious Optimism

Despite a six-day losing streak, the DAX remains above the 50-day and the 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), indicating underlying bullish momentum.

• Upside Target: A breakout above 23,750 could enable the bulls to target 24,000. A sustained move through 24,000 may open the door to the June 5 record high of 24,479.
• Downside risk: A drop below 23,500 exposes the 50-day EMA and the May 23 low of 23,275.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 45.37, indicates the DAX has room to fall to 23,000 without entering oversold territory (RSI< 30).

Conclusion: Middle East, Tariffs, and the ECB

Traders should closely monitor news updates from the Middle East, trade developments, and ECB signals for guidance.

Explore our exclusive forecasts to assess whether improving trade sentiment could lift the DAX to new highs. Refer to our latest forecasts and macro insights here for further analysis, and consult our economic calendar.