Dax Index News: US Data and Trade Risks Influence DAX Forecast, Bearish or Bullish?

DAX Rebounds as US Data Shows Muted Tariff Impact

Global markets turned to crucial US economic data on Thursday, May 15, amid concerns over tariff-driven US stagflation risk. The DAX advanced 0.72%, reversing Wednesday’s 0.47% loss to close at 23,527.

Stock Movers: Defense Stocks Surge

News of Russian President Vladimir Putin missing a chance to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky impacted hopes for a peace deal. The reports fueled demand for defense and aerospace stocks.

Rheinmetall AG surged 5.65%, while MTU Aero rallied 2.34%.

Bayer rallied 3.11%, extending its gains from Wednesday after beating earnings estimates. Deutsche Telekom also posted strong results, gaining 2.81%.

However, Merck tumbled 6.82% amid concerns about Trump’s plans for cutting drug prices.

Wholesale Price Inflation Slows, Boosting Rate Cut Bets

German wholesale prices increased 0.8% year-on-year in April after rising 1.3% in March. Softer wholesale prices may signal weakening demand, leading wholesalers to lower prices, potentially dampening inflation. A softer inflation outlook may fuel bets on multiple ECB rate cuts.

Labor market data and industrial production figures for the Eurozone were upbeat, suggesting tariff front-running in Q1 2025.

Eurozone Trade in Focus

On Friday, May 16, Eurozone trade data may draw scrutiny from US President Trump. Economists expect the trade surplus to widen from €24 billion in February to €25 billion in March.

Trade terms with the US will require consideration amid tariff developments. However, markets may attribute any export surge to the US as front-loading, limiting the impact on German-listed stocks. Nevertheless, the DAX remains vulnerable to US administration rhetoric on trade and tariffs.

Wall Street Mixed as Tariffs Take Effect

Wall Street posted mixed performances on Thursday, May 15, as corporate news countered hopes for a Q3 2025 Fed rate cut. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.18%, while the Dow and the S&P 500 climbed 0.65% and 0.41%, respectively.

US producer prices increased 2.4% year-on-year in April, slowing significantly from a 3.4% rise in March. As a leading inflation indicator, weaker producer prices may signal a softer inflation outlook, supporting a more dovish Fed rate path.

However, warnings from Walmart (WMT) about price hikes due to tariffs impacted tariff-linked stocks. Amazon.com (AMZN) slid 2.42%, dragging the Nasdaq into the red.

US Consumer Sentiment in Focus

In today’s US session, consumer sentiment will require consideration. Economists forecast the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will climb from 52.2 in April to 53.4 in May. An upswing in sentiment could indicate a pickup in consumer spending, easing recession fears. Conversely, a softer print may suggest a pullback in spending, impacting risk assets.

Beyond the data, trade headlines remain a key driver for sentiment, especially for the DAX.

DAX Outlook: Trade and Central Banks to Dictate Trends

The DAX’s short-term outlook hinges on trade developments, economic data, corporate earnings, and central bank rhetoric.

• Bullish Case: Easing trade tensions, upbeat earnings, positive US data, and dovish central bank comments could send the DAX toward the May 12 high of 23,912.
• Bearish Case: Rising trade friction, weak earnings, disappointing data, or hawkish central bank chatter could send the DAX toward 23,000.

As of Friday morning, the DAX futures were up by 11 points, while the Nasdaq 100 mini gained 5 points, suggesting a cautious start.

Technical Setup Suggests Cautious Optimism

After Thursday’s gains, the DAX trades well above the 50-day and the 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), indicating bullish momentum.

• Upside Target: A break above 23,750 would pave the way to retesting the record high of 23,912. Increasing buying pressure could bring 24,150 into play.
• Downside risk: A break below 23,500 may signal a fall toward 23,350, with 23,000 the next key support level.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67.39 shows the DAX has room to move toward 23,912 before entering overbought territory (RSI > 70).

Conclusion: Monitor Macro Themes and Trade News

DAX traders should stay alert to trade headlines, key economic indicators, central bank comments, and earnings reports for market direction.

Explore our exclusive forecasts to see whether trade optimism can send the DAX to new highs. Click here to explore our latest DAX research, macro insights, and emerging market coverage.