Ethereum Crash Warning Issued Just As Trump’s Winning Odds Drop

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), will likely drop toward $1,500 in the coming months, about 40% below its current price levels, according to veteran analyst Peter Brandt.

There Was Never a ‘Buy Ethereum’ Signal: Brandt

Brandt’s bearish outlook on Ethereum appeared after recent signs of recovery. It rebounded by up to 28.75% to reach around $2,768 in October from its local lows established a month prior.

The top catalysts driving Ether’s prices higher included the U.S. Federal Reserve’s massive interest rate cut in September and Donald Trump’s rising odds of winning the presidential election on Nov. 5. Nonetheless, ETH’s price recovery fell short of becoming a full-fledged breakout, prompting Brandt to say there was never a buy Ethereum signal for traders.

“In fact, the chart remains bearish with the unmet target at $1,551,” he noted in his Oct. 31 X post, just as ETH’s price dropped by almost 5.50% on the day.

Brandt’s downside target appears out of what appears to be a bear pennant formation on the ETH/USD daily chart.

A bear pennant typically appears during a downtrend and is often a continuation pattern, suggesting further declines if the price breaks down from the pattern.

The bear pennant pattern here begins with a steep price drop, visible on the chart as ETH falls from approximately $3,200 in early August to around $1,620 in mid-August—a nearly 50% decline.

The sharp move creates the “flagpole” of the pattern. Following this selloff, ETH’s price consolidates between two converging trendlines, forming the pennant. This consolidation phase indicates a temporary balance between buyers and sellers, but in the context of a bear pennant, it often reflects indecision within an overall bearish sentiment.

In technical analysis, a bear pennant breakdown often leads to a price drop equal to the height of the flagpole (the preceding sharp downtrend). Applying this measurement to a potential breakdown point around $2,500 suggests a downside target near $1,500, close to Brandt’s downside target level.

A Trump Loss in US Election May Trigger Pennat Scenario

As of Nov. 1, Donald Trump remains a slight favorite in the 2024 U.S. presidential election betting markets, but his advantage has weakened.

Recent data from betting platforms shows Trump’s odds have dropped to around 1.65 (or 4/6), translating to a roughly 60% implied chance of winning. Kamala Harris, his main competitor, has seen her odds improve to around 2.54 (or 6/4), as swing states like Michigan and Nevada show her in a slight lead.

In technical terms, this political uncertainty could influence Ethereum’s bear pennant setup. If markets view a Trump loss as negative for risk assets, it might heighten ETH’s bearish momentum, potentially triggering a breakdown below the pennant’s support.

Conversely, a clearer path to victory for Harris might add to this downside risk if it brings increased regulatory scrutiny over digital assets, which she has voiced support for during her campaign.