EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Look Sloopy Ahead of NFP Friday

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro rallied ever so slightly in the early hours on Thursday, but really at this point in time, it looks like the market is still trying to sort out where the US dollar is probably going to go. Did we just bottom? I think that’s the real question most traders are paying attention to.

And as a result, I think it’s worth noting that the 200 day EMA above, right around the 1.09 level will probably end up being fairly crucial as to what happens next. We do have the jobs numbers on Friday and that of course will cause a lot of noise. So, we’ll have to wait and see. This, of course, will have a major influence on what happens with the greenback going forward. As things stand right now, the 1.0750 level is your floor.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The U.S. dollar did fall pretty significantly against the Japanese yen overnight as the Bank of Japan in the early hours had its interest rate decision and its statement, press conference, etc. Really, at this point in time, the Japanese can’t do much. They do have modest GDP growth, but really beyond that, there’s no way that they can tighten. And I think this is just a sign of what’s going to eventually happen.

The jobs number, of course, will have a major influence on the US dollar part of the equation. But as things stand right now, it still looks like it’s attracting buyers on each and every dip.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar is still just hanging around the 0.6550 level, an area that is significant support. All things being equal, the market is going to be paying close attention to the employment situation. Furthermore, the market is also going to be paying attention to the risk appetite based on the idea of whether or not the global economy is speeding up, staying stable, or slowing down. Remember, Australia is a heavily commoditized economy as it’s all about iron and gold and copper, etc.

If we were to break down below the 0.65 level, then that could open up the trapdoor to much lower pricing, but I suspect that would probably be more or less a US dollar thing, not an Australian dollar one. So, with all of that being said, we probably have more likelihood of a short-term bounce, but I look at bounces as potential selling opportunities on signs of exhaustion.

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