EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Drifts a Bit in Early Trading on Thursday

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Published: Nov 7, 2024, 13:10 GMT+00:00

The US dollar has drifted a bit lower in the early hours of Thursday, as the market continues to try to price in the idea of a rate cut in America, but at the same time, trying to price in the idea of a stronger US economy in the near future.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro has rallied ever so slightly during the early hours on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, but Thursday was a little bit calmer, at least so far. Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve has an interest rate decision later in the session and that of course will throw the dollar around, but ultimately, I think you have a situation where before it’s all said and done, I don’t know how much changes we are closer to the bottom of the range than the top.

So, a bit of a bounce, especially after that massive sell off on Wednesday would be expected, but really at this point in time, I’m not overly concerned about the Euro itself until we break down below 1.06. More likely than not, we probably get a little bit of a bounce after an expected 25 basis point cut out of Washington, only to stay in the same range we’ve been in.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has pulled back just a bit against the Japanese yen, but that makes sense. We tested the crucial 155 yen level, an area that’s been important a couple of times in the past and of course is a large round psychologically significant figure. Furthermore, we are working off some of that froth from the Wednesday candlestick after the election, but I would look at this as a carry trade just waiting to happen. So, on short-term pullbacks, I am interested in buying this pair, but frankly, I hope it drops further so I can pick up cheap dollars.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied quite nicely and is now threatening the 200 day EMA, but really at this point, it’s still right in the middle of the consolidation it had been in. So, I don’t really see a lot there to get overly excited about. Ultimately, the 200 day EMA, the 50 day EMA and the 0.67 level above all offer resistance. So, I do think that the upside is probably somewhat limited unless of course the Federal Reserve shocks everybody later in the session.

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About the Author

Christopher Lewisauthor

Christopher Lewis is an experienced trader that specializes in technical analysis and markets prediction. Chris has over 20 years of experience across a wide variety of markets and assets - currencies, indices, and commodities.