EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Recovers a Bit Against Multiple Currencies

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro has dropped a bit against the US dollar in early trading on Thursday as it looks like people are trying to hedge their bets as it were ahead of the non-farm payroll announcement as the US dollar will obviously be very noisy on Friday. So with that being said, I think it makes a certain amount of sense that we have turned back around.

The overall trend, of course, is to the downside, and I do think that eventually, we will see this market break back down toward the lows. I mean, after all, there’s really no reason to get excited about owning the euro anyway. So with that, I think we will continue lower, but I also recognize Friday is non-farm payroll and that’s going to cause chaos. I see a ceiling at 1.05 or so.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has stabilized a little bit against the Japanese yen as we hang around the 200-day EMA. It’ll be interesting to see whether or not we can bounce. If we can break to the upside, we could go as high as a 50 day EMA. There is talk about the Bank of Japan tightening a bit more. I don’t know if the inflation in Japan will ultimately be enough to get things moving in the other direction, but we’ll have to see.

I do believe that this is a market in wich, given enough time, we’ll probably have to determine what we want to do with the carry trade because, quite frankly, the carry trade has been one of the main reasons we’ve been driving higher. You could make an argument for a little bit of a previous trend line here, but I think more than anything else, this is waiting on Friday as well.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Thursday as the 50-day EMA continues to be a bit of a barrier. If we can break above there, then it’s likely that the market will go looking to the 0.635 zero level above, which is a major inflection point on longer-term charts.

Ultimately, though, I don’t see any real reason to think that the Australian dollar is suddenly going to change its trend against the US dollar, so with that, I still remain very negative on this currency pair and recognize that quite frankly, we’re probably in a bit of consolidation at the moment.

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