The US dollar initially sold off hard for the session on Monday, but it is also worth noting that the US was celebrating Memorial Day, and therefore the liquidity could have been an issue.
The euro did initially try to rally during the trading session on Monday but has turned things around to show signs of hesitation. By doing so, the euro is starting to show weakness yet again near the 1.14 level. And I do think that there is plenty of noise all the way to the 1.15 level. If we pull back from here, and honestly, it wouldn’t really surprise me, I think we could drive towards 1.13 and then followed by 1.12. Anything underneath 1.12 probably really gets this thing moving to the downside back into the previous consolidation range.
Getting at the US dollar against the Japanese yen, you can see that we have rallied a bit during the trading session here on Monday as we initially gapped lower only to turn around and show signs of life. The 142 level is an area that’s been important over the last couple of weeks and it is trying to show a certain amount of support. And if we were to break down below there, then the 140 yen level could be targeted. If we rally from here, 145 yen could be the target. If we can break above there, then we could go much higher. But really, there is no catalyst at the moment. I think we’re just in the middle of trying to stabilize things.
The Australian dollar did initially rally pretty significantly during the early part of the session but is giving that back. So, I just don’t think we’re ready to go anywhere here. That being said though, if we break above the top of the candlestick for the Monday session, then I think the Aussie gets escape velocity. But one of the things you probably need to pay attention to is the fact that it was Memorial Day in the United States.
So, liquidity would have been an issue. I don’t know how much you can read into the move other than it just didn’t stick. Not only in the Australian dollar, but the Japanese yen and the euro. Because of this, I don’t know what’s changed, but I think out of the three currencies that I’m measuring against the US dollar in this video, I think the Euro might actually be the one that is most at risk against US dollar strength, assuming it comes.
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Christopher Lewis is an experienced trader that specializes in technical analysis and markets prediction. Chris has over 20 years of experience across a wide variety of markets and assets - currencies, indices, and commodities.