Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Prelim GDP q/q and Jobless Claims Set Market Tone

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to break its losing streak, hovering around $2,895, but managing to stay above the crucial $2,875 mark. The yellow metal is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) gains strength, supported by rising US Treasury bond yields. This has diminished gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. The recent uptick in the US Dollar Index reflects investor optimism, further curbing demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

“The strong US Dollar, coupled with positive equity sentiment, is weighing on gold,” said Ilya Spivak, Head of Global Macro at Tastylive. However, uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s potential tariff policies is offering mild support, keeping gold from a deeper drop.

Investors are now keenly awaiting the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report on Friday, which could provide clues on inflation and influence the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates.

If the data indicates cooling inflation, it could fuel expectations of a rate cut, potentially boosting gold prices. Until then, gold is likely to trade within a tight range as traders weigh economic concerns against market sentiment.

Silver Struggles Below $32 Amid Economic Uncertainty

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $31.76, after touching an intra-day low of $31.54, pressured by a strong US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Like gold, silver is also experiencing selling pressure as investors turn to riskier assets amid a bullish equity market.

However, ongoing economic uncertainty and speculation over potential Federal Reserve rate cuts are preventing a steeper decline.

Key Economic Events to Watch

Traders are focused on the US PCE Price Index due on Friday, which could impact the Fed’s interest rate decisions. Other key economic reports this week include Q4 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and Weekly Jobless Claims.

If the data supports a weaker economic outlook, it could increase the probability of a rate cut, potentially providing support for both gold and silver.

Analysts suggest cautious optimism as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties continue to shape the demand for safe-haven metals. Investors are advised to keep a close watch on inflation data and Fed commentary for clearer market direction.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) likely to trade within $2,875-$2,920, influenced by US Dollar strength and inflation data. Watch for breakouts at key levels.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,895.37, down 0.01%, showing some hesitation just below the Pivot Point at $2,920.52. The price is currently under pressure, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,918.57 acting as resistance. If gold breaks above $2,920.52, it could gain bullish momentum, targeting the next resistance levels at $2,956.68 and $2,985.93.

On the downside, immediate support is at $2,864.54, with a stronger floor at $2,834.26. If prices dip below $2,864.54, a more significant decline could follow, potentially testing the 200 EMA at $2,839.91.

For now, the trend remains bearish below $2,920.52, but a break above this level would shift the momentum back to the bulls.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $31.76, slightly down by 0.01%, and is currently below the Pivot Point at $31.95. It’s a crucial level to watch because breaking above it could trigger buying interest, pushing prices towards the next resistance at $32.48, with a more significant hurdle at $33.10.

On the downside, immediate support is at $31.28, with a stronger cushion at $30.69. If silver falls below $31.28, the next target would be the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $31.67, potentially signaling more downside.

For now, the trend leans bearish as long as silver stays below $31.95, but a break above this pivot would shift momentum back to the bulls.