Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Market Hovers at $3310.48 Pivot, Bulls Eye Breakout Toward $3435

Gold Rallies as Fiscal Fears Trigger Flight from Dollar and Treasurys

Gold climbed nearly 1% on Friday, heading for its strongest weekly gain in six weeks, as investor anxiety over the United States’ deteriorating fiscal outlook spurred renewed demand for safe-haven assets. The move follows a sharp sell-off in the prior session, but technical buyers stepped back in to defend key levels, aiming to extend gains through resistance at $3345.47.

At 11:10 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3328.33, up $33.32 or +1.01%.

Is Gold the Ultimate Refuge from the U.S. Fiscal Blowout?

Gold’s rise comes as concerns intensify over the U.S. government’s growing debt burden, currently at $36 trillion. The House of Representatives passed President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill, dubbed the “big, beautiful bill,” which could add nearly $4 trillion to the fiscal deficit, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The bill now moves to the Senate for debate.

These developments, along with last week’s credit rating downgrade by Moody’s, have rattled investor confidence. Moody’s cut the U.S. sovereign credit rating by one notch, citing doubts about Washington’s ability to manage its soaring debt. As a result, investors are reevaluating U.S. Treasurys’ safe-haven status, shifting allocations toward gold.

Dollar on the Defensive as Treasury Yields Surge

The U.S. dollar index dropped 0.5% Friday and is on pace for a 1.35% weekly loss—its worst showing since early April. Despite a sharp rise in long-end Treasury yields, with the 30-year yield topping 5.02%, the dollar is under pressure. Traders are increasingly worried that rising yields are not a function of stronger growth, but rather of growing fiscal instability and a rising term premium.

“Even if a U.S. default isn’t imminent, the market sees growing risks tied to higher bond supply and potential inflation from debt monetization,” said Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman. Foreign investors are backing off U.S. bonds, weakening support for the greenback.

Technical Levels and Key Support Zones

From a charting perspective, gold remains above its pivot support at $3310.48, with further support at $3277.91. The 50-day moving average, now at $3198.90, remains the critical trend gauge. Bulls are eyeing the next upside targets at $3435.06 and $3500.20.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Outlook Holds Above $3310.48

With investor sentiment turning sour on U.S. fiscal policy and the dollar weakening, gold continues to find favor as a safe-haven hedge. Rising Treasury yields, instead of propping up the dollar, are reinforcing fears of inflation and fiscal recklessness. As long as gold holds above $3310.48, the bias remains bullish with potential to challenge $3435 and possibly $3500 in the sessions ahead.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.