Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Risk-On Mood Pressures Prices, Fed Easing Eyed

Market Overview

Gold prices declined sharply during Friday’s Asian session, falling from an early high of $3,370 to $3,316, as improving U.S.–China trade sentiment and stronger economic data prompted investors to rotate out of safe-haven assets.

The shift in market mood followed reports that Beijing is weighing a suspension of its 125% tariff on select U.S. goods. President Trump confirmed ongoing negotiations, and the White House said progress was being made.

Silver Tracks Gold, Faces Selling Pressure

Silver (XAG/USD) mirrored the weakness in gold, trading at $33.44 after touching an intraday low of $33.37. The broader risk-on tone, fueled by upbeat U.S. economic figures and reduced trade friction, contributed to the decline.

Both metals remain under pressure as investors tilt toward equities and higher-yielding assets.

Stronger U.S. Data Boosts Dollar, Fed Dovishness Cushions Gold

U.S. macro data released Thursday showed notable strength. Weekly jobless claims came in at 222,000, reflecting a still-resilient labor market. March durable goods orders surged 9.2%—driven by a third consecutive 27% rise in transportation equipment—beating the 2% forecast handily.

This bolstered the U.S. dollar, further weighing on gold. However, dovish commentary from Fed officials provided a partial buffer.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said rate cuts could begin as early as June, while Governor Waller acknowledged a need to ease policy if tariffs begin harming employment. Markets now price in up to three rate cuts by year-end.

Geopolitical Tensions Offer Safe-Haven Floor

Despite the pullback, geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin gold. A missile strike in Kyiv—reportedly one of the deadliest since the start of the conflict—killed at least 12 people, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in gold prices.

Outlook: Focus on U.S. Sentiment Data and Trade Developments

Investors now await the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and further clarity on trade negotiations.

These factors could influence gold’s short-term direction, especially if risk appetite begins to wane or Fed rhetoric turns more accommodative.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold hovers near $3,319, defending trendline support, while silver consolidates below $33.71. A breakout or breakdown is imminent, with U.S. sentiment data likely to drive the next major move.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is hovering around $3,319 in the 4-hour chart, defending the rising trendline and sitting just above the 50-period EMA at $3,307. After peaking at $3,500 last week, price has retraced sharply but is now consolidating near a key inflection zone.

The $3,280–$3,307 region remains a crucial support cluster, backed by the channel base and EMA convergence.

If gold can hold this level and print a bullish candle, a rebound toward $3,371 or even $3,434 could follow. On the flip side, a break below $3,280 would likely open the door to $3,259 or even $3,194.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $33.42 on the 2-hour chart, consolidating within a tight range beneath descending trendline resistance at $33.71. Despite the pullback from the $33.70 high, price is still holding above key support at $33.18—a level backed by the 50 EMA at $33.11 and the broader bullish structure since early April.

This squeeze between horizontal resistance and rising support creates a potential breakout scenario.

If silver can close above $33.71 with volume, we may see a run toward $34.14 or even $34.60. However, a rejection from this resistance could drag the metal back toward $33.17 or $32.68. Silver is tightening within a breakout box—watch for a clean move above $33.71 or failure below $33.18.