Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Will Fed Rate Cuts Send Gold Above $3,300?

Market Overview

Gold prices extended their advance on Monday, rising to $3,272 per ounce during early Asian trading, as investors pivoted toward safe-haven assets. The rally comes amid escalating global uncertainty—from geopolitical flashpoints to renewed trade tensions—driving a wave of risk aversion across financial markets.

Silver followed suit, trading at $32.28 and hitting an intraday high of $32.45. Both metals are benefiting from a surge in defensive positioning, with institutional and retail investors hedging against rising instability.

Tariff Talk and Geopolitical Risks Fuel Gold’s Momentum

Market participants are responding to a complex backdrop that includes unresolved conflicts in Eastern Europe and heightened Middle East tensions. While the Russia–Ukraine situation remains unresolved, recent developments have reignited volatility.

In parallel, fresh threats of retaliation and regional instability in the Middle East have led to a renewed focus on tangible assets.

“The flight to safety is back in full swing,” noted David Lennox, a market strategist at Fat Prophets. “Investors are rebalancing portfolios with higher allocations in gold and silver as geopolitical risks become more unpredictable.”

Adding fuel to the fire, the U.S. administration has floated steep new tariffs—including a proposed 100% levy on foreign-produced films. The announcement has unnerved investors already sensitive to protectionist policies.

Analysts fear further escalation in tariffs could weigh on global growth, supporting precious metals that traditionally perform well during periods of economic stress.

Dollar Weakness Amplifies Gold’s Appeal Despite Solid Jobs Data

The U.S. dollar remains under pressure despite Friday’s labor report showing 177,000 jobs added in April, exceeding forecasts.

The muted response stems from speculation that the Federal Reserve could still initiate rate cuts later this year—especially if trade tensions flare up or inflation remains contained.

Fed funds futures now price in approximately 80 basis points of rate cuts for 2025. That dovish tilt, coupled with broader uncertainty, is helping gold maintain its bullish trajectory.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold faces stiff resistance at $3,268 while holding key support at $3,201; a break above trendline could spark a run toward $3,320. Silver eyes $32.98 if $32.65 breaks.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is hovering around $3,258.77, caught at a critical technical crossroads. The price is sandwiched between the 50 EMA ($3,265.94) and 200 EMA ($3,256.20), while also grappling with a descending trendline—now acting as overhead resistance.

The pivot sits near $3,268, a level that also coincides with the trendline retest. A clean break above $3,268 could open the door toward $3,320.24, with the next resistance at $3,352.96.

However, rejection at this level may send gold back toward support at $3,201.73, with further weakness exposing $3,166.86. Despite the bounce, momentum remains capped by broader bearish structure.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $32.37, attempting a rebound from the $31.98 support zone. The recovery is now testing the descending trendline, with immediate resistance at $32.65, which also aligns closely with the 50 EMA ($32.49). A breakout here could open the door toward $32.98, with the next resistance at $33.38.

On the flip side, failure to clear $32.65 could see silver roll over and retest the $31.97 floor. The 200 EMA ($32.59) is acting as overhead pressure, keeping bullish enthusiasm in check.