Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: XAU Eyes $3,284, XAG Targets $33.69

Market Overview

Gold prices recovered to $3,260 in Tuesday’s early session after dipping to $3,235, as market participants positioned themselves ahead of the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

The modest pullback in the U.S. Dollar, which had shown strength earlier in the week, supported a rebound in both gold (XAU/USD) and silver (XAG/USD), with the latter trading around $33.15.

Investor attention is squarely focused on today’s CPI release, which is forecast to show headline inflation rising 2.4% year-over-year in April. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise by 2.8%.

These figures will be closely scrutinized for signs that inflation is cooling—a scenario that could reinforce expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year.

“Market pricing currently reflects a 25-basis-point rate cut by September, with two more reductions potentially following by year-end,” said a senior analyst at KCM Trade. “If CPI undershoots, we could see expectations shift toward an earlier move, possibly in July.”

Rate cut anticipation is a key driver behind gold’s current resilience. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver, making them more attractive in a disinflationary environment.

Safe-Haven Demand Remains as Global Risks Linger

While the short-term impact of the U.S.-China trade truce has softened demand for traditional safe-haven assets, investors remain cautious amid persistent global risks.

In South Asia, political leaders have signaled that regional military escalations remain a possibility, while Eastern Europe continues to face uncertainty around potential peace negotiations.

These geopolitical undercurrents keep a bid under gold and silver, especially as volatility across broader markets remains elevated.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold and silver remain supported above key technical levels, with CPI data likely to dictate near-term direction amid Fed rate cut speculation and geopolitical undercurrents.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading at $3,260.75 and showing signs of recovery after bouncing off a key demand zone between $3,213 and $3,225. That area aligns with both horizontal support and an ascending trendline from early April, making it a critical technical level for bulls to defend.

Price is now approaching the $3,284 resistance, just shy of the 50-period EMA at $3,303. If bulls can reclaim the EMA, it opens the door to a retest of $3,346.95. On the downside, a break back below $3,225 would weaken the structure and likely drag price toward $3,157.

The overall trend remains constructive while price respects the higher low structure. For now, this bounce looks promising, but confirmation above $3,284 is needed to suggest further upside.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading at $33.15 and has just broken above a descending trendline that’s been capping price since mid-April. This breakout above the $32.99 resistance zone is a key technical shift, suggesting bulls are ready to push higher. The move also coincides with a bounce off the 50 EMA at $32.67, reinforcing the breakout’s strength.

If momentum holds, the next resistance lies at $33.69, followed by $34.08. On the downside, the broken trendline and the $32.99 level now act as immediate support. A retest of this zone that holds would confirm the breakout and offer a potential entry point for trend-following traders.

With higher lows forming and volatility compressing before this breakout, silver appears poised for a sustained move—provided it stays above the broken trendline.