Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: XAU/USD Soars on Safe-Haven and Tariff Fears

Market Overview

Gold prices extended gains for a third straight session on Friday, with spot XAU/USD reaching $3,444, its highest since April 22. Investors are increasingly turning to safe-haven assets as geopolitical risk intensifies and U.S. inflation data softens, prompting expectations of easier monetary policy ahead.

“Markets are digesting not just geopolitical instability, but also the probability of Fed rate cuts sooner than previously expected,” said Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade.

He noted that the demand for gold is being bolstered by “a blend of risk aversion and a recalibration of monetary policy expectations.”

Cooling Inflation Strengthens Fed Cut Bets

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose just 0.1% in May, down from a 0.2% decline in April, signaling persistent disinflationary trends.

Combined with soft consumer price data, markets are now pricing in a 55-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025, likely starting in September.

U.S. Treasury yields retreated, and the Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near a three-month low, supporting non-yielding gold.

Silver Consolidates Below Breakout Point

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $36.30, having slipped to an intraday low of $35.98. The metal is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting price compression as traders await a directional breakout.

While gold has surged on haven flows, silver’s upside remains capped by lingering concerns around industrial demand and global manufacturing trends.

Trade Policy Uncertainty Adds to Precious Metal Momentum

On the trade front, the U.S. expanded 50% steel tariffs to include household appliances. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reaffirmed that 55% tariffs on Chinese goods remain in place, intensifying investor concerns about global trade stability.

This has added a secondary tailwind to gold as a protective asset against macroeconomic shocks.

Short-Term Forecast

Market focus now shifts to the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and upcoming Fed guidance. For gold, resistance levels to watch lie at $3,475 and $3,503, while silver eyes a potential breakout above $36.65. Until then, technical consolidation and macro tension will guide short-term momentum.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating after a sharp rally toward the upper boundary of its ascending channel, with price currently hovering around $3,416. The earlier breakout above $3,404 marked a key technical shift, but the rejection near $3,445 suggests short-term exhaustion.

Price remains well above the 50 EMA ($3,365.52) and 200 EMA ($3,333.84), confirming a structurally bullish setup. If bulls reclaim momentum, a retest of $3,445 could pave the way toward $3,466 and $3,487. Conversely, a drop below $3,404 may invite further retracement toward $3,378.

As long as the channel and moving averages hold, the trend bias remains upward, though immediate momentum is cooling.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is testing support around $36.03 after struggling to hold above the 50 EMA ($36.17), signaling weakening short-term momentum. Despite recent gains, price action shows a series of lower highs, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment.

A close below this EMA could expose the ascending trendline support near $35.44. If that breaks, further downside toward $35.02 may follow. The broader trend remains bullish, supported by the 200 EMA ($34.88), but the current pause reflects cautious positioning ahead of key economic data.

A move back above $36.17 would be needed to revive bullish momentum and target resistance at $36.84. Until then, silver remains at a technical inflection point.