Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will Tight Supply Keep Prices Elevated?

Market Overview

Oil prices surged this week, driven by tightening U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories and ongoing supply concerns linked to geopolitical tensions. The market responded to declining stockpiles as refinery maintenance limited processing capacity, supporting expectations of robust demand.

Concurrently, uncertainties surrounding key export routes exacerbated fears of supply disruptions. Despite potential diplomatic developments, investor sentiment remained cautious, leading to renewed buying activity.

These dynamics contributed to a 3% weekly gain for major oil benchmarks, highlighting how geopolitical uncertainty continues to shape the natural gas and oil forecast, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to global events.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices are currently trading at $4.171 showing no significant movement today. The 4-hour chart reveals a critical pivot point at $4.033, which serves as a key support level. As long as prices stay above this level, the sentiment remains bullish.

However, if prices break below $4.033, we could see sharp selling pressure, possibly pushing prices down to the next support at $3.805 or even $3.551.

On the upside, the immediate resistance is at $4.484, followed by a more robust barrier at $4.745. If natural gas can break above these resistance levels, it could pave the way for further gains. Traders should watch the 50 EMA at $3.842 and 200 EMA at $3.469 as dynamic support zones.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading at $72.33, showing a slight uptick but staying below the crucial pivot point at $72.53. This level is key – if prices break above it, we could see bullish momentum push oil towards the next resistance at $73.59 and possibly $75.10.

However, as long as prices remain below $72.53, the sentiment leans bearish, with the first support at $71.17, followed by a stronger floor at $70.10.

The 50-day EMA at $71.87 is currently acting as dynamic support, while the 200-day EMA at $72.54 is reinforcing resistance, adding to the bearish outlook. Keep an eye on the pivot point – it’s the key to the next move.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) is trading at $76.33, showing a slight dip but holding steady below the pivotal $77.06 level. This is the key resistance to watch – if prices break above $77.06, it could trigger a bullish push towards $77.85, and potentially even $78.79.

However, staying below this pivot point keeps the outlook bearish, with immediate support at $75.69 and a stronger floor at $74.09.

The 50-day EMA at $75.78 is acting as dynamic support, while the 200-day EMA at $76.07 is reinforcing resistance. This EMA setup suggests a cautious bearish sentiment. The next big move hinges on whether Brent can break above or stay below $77.06 – that’s the level to watch.