Natural Gas Price Outlook – Natural Gas Continues to Look Heavy

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets have fallen again during the early hours on Thursday as it looks like we are in the midst of trying to roll over into the springtime mindset. We are now in the April contract, and that of course means that we are paying attention to the idea that temperatures are going to continue to rise. Quite frankly, at this point in time, I think the market has probably peaked for the winter. Although there could be a wicked winter storm that pops up that changes things, but we’re getting very close to March 1st now.

And generally speaking, this is when natural gas starts to slump as demand will drop until we get the very, very peak of summer temperatures and then Americans flip over to air conditioning demand. At this point, though, it looks like ahead of the storage report, we are certainly focusing on the temperatures more than anything else. And the weather report does suggest that temperatures are going to become quite a bit milder. In fact, yesterday, it was almost warm enough to wear shorts outside.

So that gives you an idea of how quickly things are changing. So, with that being said, I do think that shorting natural gas is what I’ll be looking to do. And if we can break below that 50 day EMA near the $3.65 level, I think it will only accelerate the selling off. I don’t really have any interest in buying. If we got a spike higher, I would probably just step back and look for signs of exhaustion to start shorting again.

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