Natural Gas Price Outlook – Natural Gas Continues to Threaten a Move Above 4 Dollars

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets look as if they are going to seriously threaten the $4 level. The $4 level, of course, is an area where we’ve seen a lot of resistance and support in the past. And of course, there’s a lot of psychology attached to it. So really, when I look over to the left on the chart, I see a lot of downward supply here. And we could see a little bit of exhaustion to send this market lower.

But at the same time, we have to keep in mind that the war in the Middle East with the potential disruption of supply of natural gas could have a bit of a knock on effect in places like Europe, which of course could have Europeans importing more US natural gas. So, I think that’s part of what’s going on here.

I believe that Thursday’s probably somewhat limited in its impact anyways, because it was the Juneteenth holiday in the United States. And as a result, a lot of the volume isn’t there in the market either. So this is very headline driven. This time of year, it is typically very poor for natural gas, but we do have different circumstances than most years. Whether or not we can break above $4 remains to be seen, but if we do, we’re probably going to $4.15 short term. I still like the idea of shorting this market eventually. We just haven’t had the setup yet. And sometimes you get paid to simply wait for the right opportunity.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.