Oil, Natural Gas, USD/CAD Analysis: Volatility Ahead as Prices Approach Critical Levels

Oil prices remain under pressure as investors anticipate progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks. WTI crude oil (CL) trades near a two-month low of $68.60, reflecting weakened demand expectations. The White House has signaled President Trump’s intention to end the conflict quickly, with a potential meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The US and Ukraine have also agreed to a draft minerals deal that excludes security guarantees or continued arms supply. Traders view this as a positive step toward de-escalation, which could lead to the removal of sanctions on Russia. If sanctions ease, the Russian oil supply could increase, further depressing global oil prices.

Moreover, the concerns over a potential economic slowdown caused by Trump’s tariff policies add further downside pressure. The US has already imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and 25% duties on aluminum and steel. Additional reciprocal tariffs, including 25% levies on foreign cars, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, are expected by April. These trade restrictions could weaken global economic activity, reducing industrial demand for oil. Investors fear slower economic growth may curb energy consumption, leading to an oversupplied oil market. Therefore, sentiment in the oil market remains bearish, with traders hesitant to take long positions.

Meanwhile, the US EIA crude oil stock data showed a decline in US crude inventories by 2.332 million barrels, defying expectations of a 2.54 million-barrel build. However, crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose by 1.282 million barrels, continuing last week’s increase. Gasoline inventories also climbed by 0.369 million barrels, against forecasts of a more significant drawdown. Mixed inventory data suggests that regional stockpiles remain high while overall supply tightens, limiting any potential oil price recovery.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

Oil Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price is approaching the target of $66–$68 and is seeking its next direction. This target is derived from the triangle pattern that developed in 2024. Since price uncertainty persists, a rebound from this target zone is likely.

Overall, the oil market remains under bearish pressure, and a break below $66 could trigger a long-term downtrend. The RSI is still above the oversold level, indicating the potential for further downside momentum.

Oil 4-Hour Chart – Bearish Pressure

The 4-hour chart for WTI oil shows that the price remains under bearish pressure below the $72.50 level. The price has broken the black trendline and continues to accelerate downward. The immediate support lies around $67–$68.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Key Resistance

Natural gas (NG) prices have hit resistance at the ascending channel around $4.50 and are correcting lower. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, and both are trending upward, indicating a strong uptrend. Strong heating demand will likely support higher prices in the short term. The $3.50–$3.30 range remains a strong support zone.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Ascending Channels

Natural gas prices continue to increase and have hit resistance at $4.50. The correction from this resistance appears bullish due to the formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. Moreover, the RSI remains below the mid-level, indicating that prices may continue to correct lower in the short term. However, this correction will likely be considered a buying opportunity for investors.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Daily – Price Rebound

The daily chart for USD/CAD shows that the pair has rebounded from $1.4170 and is testing the 50-day SMA as strong daily resistance. A daily close above $1.4350 will confirm the bullish trend and increase the pair. However, a break below $1.4170 could signal further correction before the next move higher. The overall trend remains upward, with the pair consistently moving higher.

USD/CAD 4-Hour Chart – Symmetrical Broadening Wedge

The 4-hour chart for USD/CAD shows strong volatility as the pair forms a symmetrical broadening wedge pattern after breaking out of the ascending channel. The rebound from the key support level has reached daily resistance, where price uncertainty persists due to high volatility in the energy market and ongoing global trade tensions.