Oil News: Can Crude Oil Sustain Gains Above 200-Day MA Before OPEC Decision?

Crude Oil Futures Test 200-Day Pivot as Traders Eye OPEC and Demand Signals

Light crude oil futures are pushing higher on Friday, testing support at the 200-day moving average near $65.15, which is acting as a pivot for near-term trader positioning. A sustained move above this level could prompt a short-covering rally toward the long-term 50% retracement at $67.44, with further upside potential toward $71.20 if momentum strengthens.

On the downside, a break below the 200-day moving average could open a swift move to $64.00, followed by the 50-day moving average near $62.00 if selling pressure accelerates.

At 11:38 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $65.54, up $0.30 or +0.46%.

OPEC+ Meeting in Focus as Geopolitical Premiums Fade

Oil prices are on track for their steepest weekly decline in over two years, falling around 12%, as markets discount the risk premium tied to the Iran-Israel conflict following last week’s ceasefire. Brent, which briefly topped $80 per barrel during the conflict, has retreated sharply to $67 as traders pivot back to supply-demand fundamentals.

Attention now shifts to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6, where members will decide on August production targets. Analysts at Rystad Energy highlight that while there may be room for one additional month of accelerated unwinding, the market’s direction will depend heavily on the strength of summer demand indicators, which will guide OPEC’s production posture into the second half of the year.

Inventory Draws and China’s Iranian Crude Imports Support Sentiment

Multiple inventory data points are providing support to prices despite the broader weekly decline.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a draw in crude and fuel inventories alongside rising refining activity and demand, while data from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub showed independently held gasoil stocks falling to their lowest in over a year.

Singapore’s middle distillate inventories also dropped as net exports increased week over week, reflecting tighter product markets.

Adding to the market’s supply recalibration, China’s Iranian crude imports surged in June, hitting a record 1.8 million barrels per day according to Vortexa.

The acceleration in flows came as independent Chinese refiners increased purchases ahead of the conflict while demand improved, underscoring China’s pivotal role in absorbing sanctioned barrels and supporting global demand.

Oil Prices Forecast: Stabilization Above Key Technical Levels Possible

With geopolitical premiums fading, traders are refocusing on technical levels, inventory draws, and upcoming OPEC+ decisions. If the 200-day moving average holds, a push toward $67.44 could attract additional short-covering, potentially stabilizing prices near key retracement zones.

However, if prices slip below $65.15 and $64.00, momentum could skew bearish into the $62.00 region. For now, the market leans cautiously neutral to bullish, with stabilization above the 200-day pivot likely as traders await clarity on summer demand and OPEC’s supply path.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.