Oil Soars 40% In 2 Months — Is $100 The Next Stop?

The explosive rally has revived expectations of $100 Oil, with Traders, Economists and Global Policymakers recalibrating forecasts for the second half of 2025.

Trump Draws a Line: “Today is Day 61”

Brent and WTI benchmarks both spiked sharply after Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian territory, escalating regional tensions to levels not seen in over a decade. In his first public statement following the attack U.S President Donald Trump declared: “Two months ago I gave Iran a 60-day ultimatum to make a deal. They should have done it. Today is day 61.”

Markets interpreted the remarks as a signal that diplomatic negotiations are stalling – raising the prospect of further conflict and price spikes.

JPMorgan Warns of $130 Oil

Attention has turned to the Strait of Hormuz – the strategic chokepoint through which nearly 25% of global Oil and 20% of LNG shipments pass. Any sustained disruption could tip the market from mild surplus to a severe deficit.

JPMorgan estimates that up to 1.7 million barrels per day could be taken offline if hostilities persist, potentially pushing Oil to $130 a barrel — a level not seen since the 2008 Commodities boom.

Oil Shock Could Push U.S Inflation Back to 5%

A renewed Oil shock could have profound macroeconomic consequences. “If crude breaches and holds above the $100 mark, we could see U.S inflation reaccelerate towards 5%,” according to Phil Carr, Head of Trading at GSC Commodity Intelligence.

Higher energy costs would ripple across supply chains, forcing central banks to shelve rate-cut expectations. The Federal Reserve, which had signalled a policy pause, may be forced into prolonged inaction – reviving fears of Stagflation just as markets were beginning to price in Disinflation.

Gold, Silver and Platinum Enter Breakout Mode

While Oil dominates headlines, the rally has extended across the Commodity complex. On Friday, Gold surged past $3,450 an ounce, now within 2% of its all-time record high. Year-to-date, the world’s favorite precious metal has climbed over 30% – driven by inflation hedging, central bank buying and growing distrust in fiat money.

Silver has gained more than 50% this year, recently touching a 13-year high, while Platinum is up over 40% in just eight weeks – its fastest rally since 2008. “Compared to Gold, both Silver and Platinum remain significantly undervalued,” says Carr. “They offer far greater asymmetric upside at this stage of the cycle.”

Dollar Weakness Reinforces Supercycle Narrative

Compounding the momentum is the U.S. dollar’s retreat to three-year lows, which has enhanced the attractiveness of dollar-denominated Commodities. In a note to clients, analysts at GSC Commodity Intelligence wrote: “The macro backdrop – marked by geopolitical risk, monetary uncertainty and resurging inflationary pressures – sets the stage for a powerful new phase in the Commodity Supercycle”.

The Commodity Supercycle Has Reignited

From Energy to Metals – the Commodities markets appear to be undergoing a historic repricing. Oil is charging towards $100. Gold is nearing its all-time record highs. Silver and Platinum are breaking out. And global inflation is facing a potential resurgence.

For traders the message is clear: the time to position in Commodities is now – before $100 Oil becomes the new normal and before Gold, Silver, and Platinum enter their next explosive phase.