Silver (XAG) Forecast: Jobs Data and Fed in Focus—Brace for Volatile Silver News

Silver Pauses Below Highs as Tariffs, Fed, and Gold Trends Take Center Stage

Silver prices are cooling off after tagging a multi-month high at $34.79 earlier this week. On Wednesday, the metal edged lower for a second session, grappling with resistance at $34.87 and $35.40. Traders are weighing external pressures—particularly renewed U.S.-China trade friction, Federal Reserve rate expectations, and correlated price action in gold—before committing to the next move.

At 12:07 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $34.39, down $0.14 or -0.39%.

Tariff Tensions Intensify, Stirring Volatility

Fresh U.S. tariff hikes on steel imports—jumping from 25% to 50%—have stirred concern across commodities markets. The move comes alongside a breakdown in the fragile tariff truce between Washington and Beijing.

Both sides are accusing each other of violating May’s trade pause, injecting uncertainty into global demand forecasts for industrial metals like silver. The tariff escalation has also elevated inflation concerns, which can support silver’s value proposition—but only if it feeds into Fed easing bets. As it stands, traders are struggling to price in the net impact.

Fed and Jobs Data Loom Large

The near-term outlook hinges on U.S. labor data due Friday. A strong nonfarm payrolls print would likely reinforce the Federal Reserve’s current rate hold, pressuring silver by boosting the dollar and Treasury yields.

The 10-year yield held at 4.456% Wednesday, while the 2-year was stable at 3.964%, reflecting a market in pause mode. Meanwhile, the Fed’s Beige Book and recent official commentary continue to reflect caution, particularly on trade risk.

Gold Stalls, Dimming Silver’s Momentum

Gold’s inability to push past its weekly high at $3392.31 has also capped enthusiasm in the silver market. While safe-haven flows initially supported precious metals, the lack of a decisive move in gold has left silver exposed. Gold’s path remains tied to Friday’s jobs data and dollar direction—key factors for silver as well, given their close correlation. If gold breaks higher, silver could follow; if not, traders may see prices slide toward support levels.

Silver Price Outlook: Range or Retreat?

Silver is at a technical crossroads. Strong overhead resistance remains at $35.40, with support seen at $33.70 and $32.80—the latter aligning with the 50-day moving average. With sentiment hanging on external events and no clear catalyst yet in play, traders should watch gold’s next move and Friday’s labor report closely. For now, silver’s short-term outlook skews neutral, with downside risks rising if data favors a stronger dollar and tighter Fed stance.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.