The Day Ahead: Initial Claims Set the Tone for Today’s Markets Ahead of Broadcom Results

Mixed Overnight Action Ahead of Key Economic Data

U.S. equity index futures are edging higher early Thursday after a subdued prior session. S&P 500 futures are slightly higher at 5,994, Nasdaq 100 futures are slightly better at 21,830, and Dow futures hover just above 42,500.

Markets are pausing near recent highs following a strong May recovery. Traders are focused on this morning’s data slate and after-hours earnings to guide directional momentum.

Data Drop at 12:30 GMT: Labor and Trade in Focus

Four major U.S. reports are due at 12:30 GMT:

• Initial Jobless Claims: Estimate 236,000; prior 240,000
• Trade Balance (April): Estimate -$63.3B; prior -$140.5B
• Nonfarm Productivity (Q1 final): Estimate 0.3%
• Unit Labor Costs (Q1 final): Estimate 4.7%

Jobless claims and labor costs will be the most market-sensitive. Any sign of continued labor softening or easing cost pressures may shift expectations for monetary policy in the second half of the year.

Earnings: Broadcom and Lululemon Headline After Hours

Before the open:

• Brown-Forman (BF.B): $0.34
• Ciena (CIEN): $0.52
• Cracker Barrel (CBRL): $0.24
• Hello Group (MOMO): $1.34
• Toro (TTC): $1.39
• Victoria’s Secret (VSCO): $0.04

After the close:

• Broadcom (AVGO): Expected $1.57 EPS on $15B revenue. Key focus areas include AI networking demand, VMware transition trends, and stability in core semiconductor segments.
• Lululemon (LULU): $2.58
• DocuSign (DOCU): $0.81
• Also reporting: Braze (BRZE), Samsara (IOT), Rubrik (RBRK), ServiceTitan (TTAN), Vail Resorts (MTN)

Fed Speaker on Deck

Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks at 17:00 GMT. Markets will monitor her comments closely for any guidance on the interest rate path, especially after weaker services and employment data earlier in the week.

Levels to Watch – Clean Technical Picture on All Three Majors

S&P 500 futures

Holding above the 200-day (5,899.02) and 50-day (5,649.00) SMAs. Price remains below the 6,008.00 high from May 29. This is a potential trigger point for an upside breakout. Support rests at 5,756.50.

Nasdaq 100 futures

Trading just under the 21,858.75 high with interim support at 20,727.00. The 50-day is at 19,977.20 and 200-day at 20,831.99. Holding above the moving averages signals a bullish trend, while a move through 21858.75 reaffirms the uptrend.

Dow futures

Trapped in a well-defined range between the 42,976 high and 41,236 low. The 50-day sits at 41,232.40, while the 200-day remains elevated at 43,121.00. No trend leadership until one of those boundaries breaks.

What Matters Today

The session is shaped by high-impact economic data and several tech and consumer earnings reports. Traders are watching for confirmation of either economic slowing or resilience.

A clean upside breakout through resistance levels in the indexes likely requires a combination of softer labor cost data, stable jobless claims, and upbeat earnings—particularly from Broadcom. Anything short of that may keep markets range-bound into Friday’s close.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.