The Day Ahead: Markets Steady Today as Traders Eye Fed Speeches and Trade Talks

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures are flat Friday as traders digest the latest U.S.-U.K. trade deal framework and await key Fed commentary. S&P 500 E-mini futures are holding just under 5,690 after a strong Thursday session lifted the Dow and S&P 500 by nearly 0.6%, and the Nasdaq by 1.1%. Sentiment was buoyed by President Trump’s optimistic tone on upcoming trade talks with China.

Week-to-date, the S&P 500 is pacing for a 0.4% decline, while the Nasdaq is down 0.3%. The Dow is eyeing a slight weekly gain of 0.1%, tracking for its third straight positive week. Despite price gains, U.S. equity funds saw $9.3 billion in outflows, the fourth weekly decline, highlighting institutional caution.

Key Economic Releases

• 12:30 GMT – International Trade in Goods and Services (March)
• 14:00 GMT – Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary, March)
• 17:00 GMT – Baker Hughes Rig Count
• 17:00 GMT – 3-Year Note Auction

None of the data is expected to significantly shift sentiment but may provide directional cues tied to trade and energy.

Notable Earnings

Pre-market earnings include:

• Alpha Metallurgical (AMR) – Est. EPS -1.06
• AMC Networks (AMCX) – Est. EPS 0.78
• ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP) – Est. EPS 1.38
• Enbridge (ENB) – Est. EPS 0.69
• Pembina Pipeline (PBA) – Est. EPS 0.58
• Essent Group (ESNT) – Est. EPS 1.65

Central Bank Activity

Five Fed officials are scheduled to speak:

• 09:55 GMT – Gov. Michael Barr (AI & labor markets)
• 10:45 GMT – Gov. Adriana Kugler (employment)
• 14:00 GMT – Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee (regional economy)
• 15:30 GMT – Gov. Christopher Waller (monetary policy research)
• 18:45 GMT – Gov. Lisa Cook (productivity dynamics)

Expect traders to monitor for clarity on inflation trends and rate path expectations following the recent FOMC decision.

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 E-mini futures are stalling just below the 200-day SMA at 5,871.93, with price currently at 5,685.75. Recent highs near 5,741.00 mark immediate resistance, with support seen at 5,596.00. A break above 5,741.00 could open a path toward the 200-day, while a pullback below 5,596.00 brings 5,431.00 and 5,286.50 into focus. The 50-day SMA at 5,591.30 now acts as short-term support. Momentum remains constructive but unconfirmed unless bulls reclaim the 200-day trendline.

Outlook

Today’s trade is anchored by tariff and Fed-related headlines. The market is watching for signs of progress in U.S.-China talks and potential policy hints from a full Fed slate. Technical resistance near 5,741.00 and ongoing fund outflows keep upside moves cautious unless broader confirmation develops.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.