The Day Ahead: What Markets Are Watching Today After Fed Hold and Tech Rally

Stocks Edge Higher as Fed Holds Rates and Tech Lifts Sentiment

U.S. equities are on track for a higher open Thursday, with traders digesting the Fed’s steady stance and focusing on a heavy dose of earnings and data. As of 07:00 GMT, S&P 500 futures are up 0.73%, Nasdaq-100 futures lead with a 1.00% gain, and Dow Jones futures rise 0.54%. Wednesday’s close saw the S&P 500 post its first gain in three sessions, boosted by a 3% rally in Nvidia (NVDA) after signs the Trump administration may ease chip trade restrictions.

Pre-market action is active: AppLovin (APP) jumped over 13% post-earnings after it topped EPS estimates and announced the sale of its mobile gaming unit. Arm Holdings (ARM) dropped 11% on weak guidance, while Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) fell 4% despite a beat. Bumble (BMBL) spiked 8% after surprising with a profit, and Zillow (ZG) declined 5% on soft housing commentary. Fortinet (FTNT) tumbled 11% after guidance missed expectations.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.5%, acknowledging increased risks of both inflation and unemployment. Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on the idea of a preemptive cut, saying future moves depend on incoming data. Citi reports that positioning in U.S. equities remains flat, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing limited bullish momentum as short interest grows.

All Eyes on Jobless Claims, Productivity Data This Morning

Traders are watching for key macro updates this morning:

• Weekly Jobless Claims (12:30 GMT)
• Q1 Productivity (12:30 GMT)
• March Wholesale Inventories (14:00 GMT)

These reports follow a Q1 GDP decline and could help define the market’s short-term direction, especially on labor and cost-efficiency signals.

Earnings Blitz Continues with Tech, Energy, and Media in Focus

Before the bell, watch for:

• ConocoPhillips (COP) – EPS est. $2.05. Energy names could react to any margin pressure commentary.
• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) – EPS est. -$0.18. Streaming trends and debt load will be closely watched.
• Other reports: Cheniere Energy (LNG), EPAM Systems (EPAM), Crocs (CROX), BigCommerce (BIGC).

After the close:

• Paramount Global (PARA) – EPS est. $0.26. Investors want clarity on streaming strategy and ad sales.
• Expedia Group (EXPE) – EPS est. $0.36. Summer travel guidance will be key.
• Coinbase (COIN) – Traders are watching crypto volumes and the balance of trading vs. non-trading revenue.
  Also reporting: Pinterest (PINS), Affirm (AFRM), Cloudflare (NET), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), HubSpot (HUBS).

Gold and Yields Stabilize Ahead of Data; Dollar Rangebound

Gold is down 0.74% to $3,339, slipping below $3,351 resistance. If $3,228 breaks, next support is $3,164.
10-year Treasury yield is steady at 4.297%, above key MAs, reflecting caution before macro prints.
DXY remains trapped between 99.15 and 100.38. A break below 98.90 would turn momentum bearish.

S&P and Nasdaq Testing Resistance as Bulls Look for Follow-Through

The S&P 500 trades above its 50-day MA (5,596), with 5,724.75 resistance in sight. A close above targets 5,837.

Nasdaq-100 eyes resistance at 20,276.75 for breakout after holding 50-day moving average at 19545.00. Next target is 20,674.53 (200-day MA).
Dow futures test 50-day moving average at 41,354. Break above this indicator could open the path to 200-day moving average at 43032.

What Traders Need to Watch

Risk tone is constructive following the Fed pause and chip-sector relief, but markets remain data-sensitive. With equity positioning flat and Fed rhetoric noncommittal, today’s economic releases and earnings commentary will likely dictate direction. Early momentum favors bulls—follow-through depends on jobs and profit signals.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.