US Dollar Forecast: US Core PCE and Spending Data Loom; Gold, EUR/USD and GBP/USD Outlook

US Dollar Await Direction from Core PCE and Spending Data Release

Gold (XAU/USD) is holding steady around $2,670 as traders await a series of crucial U.S. economic data releases scheduled for today. The Core PCE Price Index, a preferred inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, will be released at 12:30 PM EST and is expected to show a 0.2% monthly rise.

Additionally, data on Personal Income and Spending will be closely watched, as both metrics are key indicators of consumer strength and economic health. Any surprises in these figures could influence the US Dollar’s strength and, consequently, gold’s short-term movement.

Market participants will also keep an eye on the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment report at 2:00 PM EST for further insights into consumer confidence.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis 

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $100.679, up 0.20% during the session, maintaining a bullish tone as it approaches the key pivot point at $100.75. Immediate resistance is $100.97, followed by $101.17 and $101.47.

A break above these levels could drive the index higher, signalling continued strength. On the downside, support is $100.43, with further safety nets at $100.22 and $99.99.

Currently, the 50-day EMA at $100.73 is acting as immediate support, while the 200-day EMA at $101.01 indicates a broader resistance level. Should DXY break above the $100.75 pivot point, we could see renewed bullish momentum.

Gold Technical Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $2,669.85, down 0.09%, holding above $2,666 support. Immediate resistance at $2,674.04.

A break below $2,666 may trigger further downside pressure.

Check out today’s analysis: Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: US PCE Data Looms, XAU Steady Near Key $2,665 Support Level

Sterling Awaits CBI Realized Sales Data for Clarity

The British Pound is trading cautiously ahead of the CBI Realized Sales data release, which is expected to show a smaller contraction at -17, compared to last month’s -27.

A stronger-than-expected result could support the GBP, while a weaker print may increase selling pressure.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

The GBP/USD is trading at $1.33746, down 0.21%, and struggling to hold above its pivot point of $1.3389. The pair faces immediate resistance at $1.3407, with further hurdles at $1.3434 and $1.3458.

Immediate support is $1.3360, with additional downside protection at $1.3335 and $1.3312.

Currently, the 50-day EMA at $1.33586 offers some near-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $1.32425 provides a more substantial foundation. If GBP/USD breaks above $1.3389, it could shift momentum toward a bullish stance.

Conversely, a drop below $1.3360 may invite more selling pressure and extend losses.

Euro Eyes Mixed Inflation Data and German Jobs Report

The Euro trades cautiously as traders digest mixed French and Spanish inflation data. France’s Consumer Spending improved by 0.2%, but its Preliminary CPI fell to -1.2%. Meanwhile, Spain’s Flash CPI dropped to 1.5% YoY. German Unemployment Change jumped by 17K, indicating labor market weakness.

Investors are now focusing on the Italian 10-year bond auction and comments from German Buba President Nagel for further direction. Weaker employment data and softer inflation figures may keep the Euro under pressure.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.11330, down 0.11%, and remains below the key pivot point of $1.11439. The pair is facing immediate resistance at $1.11573, with further upside barriers at $1.11730 and $1.11890.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.11221, with additional support at $1.11047 and $1.10921. The 50-day EMA sits at $1.11537, indicating that the pair is struggling to reclaim bullish momentum, while the 200-day EMA at $1.11181 offers some support.

If EUR/USD breaks above $1.11439, bullish sentiment may return. However, a break below the immediate support at $1.11221 could lead to further downside pressure.