US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Rebounds Near 99.00 After NFP Surprise – GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Market Overview

The US Dollar (USD) gained early in the session following the release of stronger-than-expected May Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. The US economy added 139,000 jobs, surpassing the 130,000 forecast and reinforcing labor market resilience.

The report dampened expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets now pricing in a higher likelihood of steady policy ahead.

Labor Market Remains Stable as Wages Outpace Forecasts

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, aligning with projections, while average hourly earnings rose 3.9% year-over-year, slightly above estimates.

Although April’s payrolls were revised downward to 147,000 from 177,000, the overall tone of the report suggests continued strength in hiring and wage growth, key metrics closely watched by the Fed.

Focus Shifts to US-China Trade Talks in London

Attention now turns to Monday’s US-China trade negotiations in London, where Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other officials will meet with Chinese counterparts.

The outcome may influence the USD’s direction: signs of de-escalation could boost risk appetite, while prolonged tensions may reinforce the dollar’s safe-haven appeal.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 98.93, facing strong resistance from the descending trendline and the 50 EMA at 99.00. The price recently rejected the 99.34 level and is once again testing the dynamic support zone. The 200 EMA at 99.43 continues to act as a ceiling, reinforcing the broader bearish trend.

Candles are printing below the trendline, suggesting sellers remain in control unless a decisive breakout above 99.34 occurs. Key support lies at 98.58, followed by 98.34. A break below 98.58 could open the door toward 98.08–97.80.

Short-term outlook: Bearish below 99.00, bullish only above the descending trendline and 200 EMA.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading near $1.3564, supported by the ascending trendline and the 50 EMA at $1.3542. The pair recently bounced from the $1.3516 level and continues to trade above the 200 EMA at $1.3474, suggesting a bullish bias remains in place.

Immediate resistance is at $1.3583, and a clear breakout above this level could open the path toward $1.3616 and $1.3650. On the downside, holding above $1.3548 keeps short-term momentum intact. A break below the trendline may expose support at $1.3516 and $1.3485.

Short-term bias: Bullish above $1.3548 Momentum favors buyers if the pair holds above the 50 EMA and breaks $1.3583.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is currently trading near $1.1422, showing resilience as it holds above the ascending trendline and both key EMAs—50 EMA at $1.1409 and 200 EMA at $1.1353. The bullish structure remains intact with higher lows forming consistently since late May.

Immediate resistance is seen at $1.1457, followed by $1.1495. A clean breakout above $1.1457 could open the door toward $1.1533 in the short term. On the downside, key support lies at $1.1400, with a breakdown potentially exposing $1.1365 and $1.1323.

Short-term bias: Bullish above $1.1400. Watch for a sustained move above $1.1457 to confirm further upside momentum.