XRP News Today: XRP Hits $2.65—Can It Challenge 2018’s Record High? BTC Visits $105k

XRP Flips USDT as XRP Holders Surge

Market sentiment toward the SEC vs. Ripple case continued driving XRP demand on Monday, May 12. Optimism about a potential resolution has fueled hopes for an XRP-spot ETF market and strong institutional demand. Notably, XRP briefly flipped USDT, becoming the third-largest crypto before retreating.

Market intelligence platform Santiment attributed XRP’s ascendency to three drivers:

• House Bill 594: The US State of Missouri recently passed legislation to become the first state to offer a full income tax deduction on all capital gains, including BTC and XRP profits.
• XRP holders rose over 11% year-to-date in 2025.
• Travala.com accepts XRP for payment.

The increase in XRP holders reflects rising investor confidence in a favorable outcome to the Ripple case.

Ripple and the SEC are awaiting Judge Analisa Torres’ ruling on the agency’s settlement. Last week, the SEC filed a motion to lift the injunction prohibiting XRP sales to institutional investors and reduce the $125 million penalty.

The settlement terms are part of an agreement between the SEC and Ripple to drop their respective appeals. If the SEC withdraws its appeal on the Programmatic Sales ruling, it could clear the path for XRP-spot ETF approval. If XRP-spot ETF attracts demand similar to BTC-spot ETFs, XRP could experience comparable price gains.

BTC surged to a January 2025 all-time high of $109,312, boosted by $35.26 billion of total net inflows into US BTC-spot ETFs in 2025. While XRP outperformed BTC on legal developments, XRP has yet to revisit its January 2018 record high of $3.5505. An XRP-spot ETF market could change the narrative.

XRP Outlook: Legal Headwinds and ETF Uncertainty

XRP rallied 7.53% on Monday, May 12, reversing Sunday’s 4.24% loss to close at $2.5448. The token outperformed the broader crypto market, which fell 0.42% to a total crypto market cap of $3.26 trillion. Hopes of an SEC settlement and ETF approval drove XRP to $2.6554, its highest level since March 3.

In the near term, key drivers include court rulings, ETF application updates, and macroeconomic developments such as tariff headlines. Technical support sits at $2.10. A breakout above $2.50 could open the door for a $3.00 test and challenge the record high.

See our full XRP forecast here.

Bitcoin Reacts to US-China Trade Deal

While XRP soared on legal optimism, bitcoin (BTC) broke through the $105,000 mark for the first time since January 31, 2025. On May 12, the US cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days. Meanwhile, China lowered levies on US goods from 120% to 10% for the same period.

The trade deal eased recession fears, sending the Nasdaq Composite Index up 4.35%. According to Polymarket, the odds of a US recession in 2025 dropped from 66% on May 2 to 41%.

Santiment remarked on BTC’s price trends, stating:

“Crypto trading volume has been rising substantially Monday, with retail traders positively responding to the news of the U.S. and China reaching an agreement to drop tariffs for 90 days as their negotiations continue for a long-term solution. Prices have been lagging a bit compared to the massive +3.1% S&P 500 reaction to the news.”

Santiment painted an optimistic price outlook, adding:

“But don’t be surprised if cryptocurrency plays a bit of catch-up with rising volumes and institutional investors planning their next moves.”

BTC Price Outlook: Trade, Inflation, and ETF Flows in Focus

Despite the upbeat sentiment, profit taking left BTC in negative territory. BTC fell 1.04% on May 12, adding to Sunday’s 0.78% loss, settling at $102,729. Still, BTC held above $100,000 for the fourth consecutive session.

Short-term price direction will depend on US-China trade updates, US inflation data, ETF flow trends, and legislative developments.

Potential scenarios:

• Bearish Scenario: Negative trade headlines, hotter US inflation, US lawmaker resistance to the Bitcoin Act, and ETF outflows. Bearish sentiment could send BTC toward $90,000.
• Bullish Scenario: Upbeat trade developments, weaker US inflation, pro-crypto legislation, and ETF inflows. Bullish sentiment could drive BTC above the record high of $109,312.

Of note, Senator Cynthia Lummis recently reintroduced the Bitcoin Act, proposing the US acquire one million BTC over five years with a 20-year hold, a move that could significantly tighten supply.

What to Watch

Focus remains on the Ripple case resolution, ETF filings, macroeconomic indicators, and trade-related headlines. A favorable court ruling may lift XRP demand, while broader crypto sentiment hinges on economic signals and regulatory clarity.

Read analysts’ insights on what could drive cryptocurrencies to new highs.