Bitcoin Hovers Near All-Time High but Open Interest is Weaker Than Last Time

Thus far in the session, BTC is up 1.6% at $105,394 per coin but surged to as much as $106,848 at some point, which is just 1.4% away from its December 17 all-time record.

In the past 24 hours, $52 million worth of BTC short positions have been liquidated and bulls are having a field day.

However, the last time that BTC came near these levels in 2025 open interest was much higher than it is right now. Currently, a total of $64.8 billion worth of future contracts remain open across all exchanges according to data from CoinGlass.

Compared to January 21, the only time that BTC has managed to close above $106,000, contract volumes were 5.4% higher back then.

This is not necessarily bad. Open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts – both long and short positions. Back when the price hit its 2025 peak, there was probably some excess leverage that needed to be flushed out.

Hence, this renewed push toward all-time highs could achieve the goal, especially now that the Fed’s meeting is in the rear-view mirror.

Bitcoin Bulls Have Banged on This Resistance Too Many Times Now – Will They Finally Break It?

The latest move toward the $106,000 level has retested a long-dated resistance that has served as a ceiling for the price of Bitcoin in the past month and a half.

If we zoom out the BTC/USD chart a little bit, we can see how a classic bull flag pattern has formed as a result of this period of consolidation. Even though a pullback may occur at this point, the odds are favoring bulls in the mid-term.

The MACD exhibits strong momentum going into this resistance again. It is worth noting that the price remains quite stretched above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).

However, back when BTC hit its March 2024 peak and started its descent, the distance between the price and the 200-day EMA was nearly 71%. Right now, that distance is fairly lower at around 29%.

It is still too early, based on this metric, to say that the rally is overextended. Meanwhile, the combination of a bull flag pattern in play and growing momentum in the MACD are also positive indications that BTC could soon move to fresh all-time highs.

FOMC Meeting Provided a Fair Degree of Certainty About What Lies Ahead

Today the markets reacted positively to a quarter-on-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) print that came in significantly off the consensus estimate.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the United States GDP expanded by 2.4% during the last quarter of the year while analysts had forecasted a 2.7% increase.

This 30bps gap could prompt the Federal Reserve to revisit its monetary policy decisions during the next quarter as economic activity appears to be slowing down.

In its widely awaited Wednesday press release, The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stated that inflation in the United States remains “somewhat elevated.”

They also highlighted that “the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.”

In central banker jargon, this typically means that they will remain cautious and may not be too fond of cutting interest rates any further for the time being until they are assured that inflation is not going to spike out of control.

However, a lower-than-expected GDP print could make them think twice. For the time being, the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged provided the market with a sufficient degree of certainty about the future.