The US dollar is a bit mixed in the early hours of Friday, as the weekend is going to be an interesting set of events just waiting to happen. At this point, the dollar is oversold, but we would need a catalyst to get moving in this environment.
The euro has rallied slightly during the early hours on Friday as we continue to see more of a tilt to the upside, but I don’t see a lot of momentum here and that tells me that the market must be waiting for more information. The 1.16 level above continues to be a bit of a barrier that is going to be difficult to overcome, but it doesn’t look like the market wants to fall either. I think it’s more or less a short-term buy on the dip type of market with short-term profits available.
The US dollar initially pulled back against the Japanese yen during the trading session but seems to be using the 145 yen level as support, right along with the 50 day EMA, which sees itself right at that big figure as well. If we can take out the 146 yen level to the upside, then I think it opens up the possibility of a move to the 200 day EMA, near the 148 yen level. If we fall from here, the market should still see plenty of buyers. So, I think this is more or less a buy on the dip scenario also.
The Australian dollar has rallied ever so slightly during the early hours on Friday, but it doesn’t look like it’s ready to go much higher. So, I think we are getting to that point now where the Aussie dollar and by extension, the New Zealand dollar looking around the horn here, are starting to get a little bit exhausted, which makes a certain amount of sense how there is so much risk out there. So, with that being the case, I think you have to start to think about fading short-term rallies here, at least until we break above the 0.6550 level.
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Christopher Lewis is an experienced trader that specializes in technical analysis and markets prediction. Chris has over 20 years of experience across a wide variety of markets and assets - currencies, indices, and commodities.