The US dollar has rallied a bit in the early hours of Tuesday, as the market continues to try to determine how long the Fed will have to keep rates higher. At this point, the US dollar had been oversold, so this move makes sense.
The Euro has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Tuesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to be one that stays in a range. And I’ve been saying for a while, I don’t know that we have the necessary momentum to break out to the upside. And therefore, I’m a little suspicious of these runs towards 1.15. That being said, if we broke above it, then we would have to pay attention to that obviously. But right now, I look at this as a market that’s just bouncing around in a 300 point range.
The US dollar has rallied against the Japanese yen from the 142 yen level, an area that, of course, is an area that’s been supported multiple times here recently. If we do bounce from here, the 145 yen level would be my target more than anything else. And with that being said, I’m waiting to see whether or not we can break above there to add to an already long position. If we break down below the 142 yen level, then the 140 yen level I think comes into the picture, which is a massive support level from a longer term standpoint. The interest rate differential continues to favor the US dollar, so I continue to favor being long.
The Australian dollar has fallen pretty significantly during the trading session on Tuesday, as the top of the range has held yet again. This is a market that continues to bang around in the same rectangle. And I think ultimately, we have a situation where the 200 day EMA and the 0.64 level, both right around the same spot, are offering support that extends down to the 0.6350 level. The 0.65 level is obvious resistance. And if we can break above there and perhaps the shooting star from last week, then the Australian dollar is going to really start to take off to the upside, looking to the 0.67 level. That being said, though, I think this is a market that goes sideways just like the Euro.
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Christopher Lewis is an experienced trader that specializes in technical analysis and markets prediction. Chris has over 20 years of experience across a wide variety of markets and assets - currencies, indices, and commodities.