Gold News: Gold Price Future Hinges on Jobs Data, Fed Cuts, and 50-Day MA Test

Gold Prices Firm as Dollar Sags, Traders Eye Fed and Jobs Data

Spot gold inched higher early Monday, reclaiming ground after briefly testing the May 29 bottom at $3245.56, hitting a session low at $3244.42 before rebounding. Traders now look toward a critical test of the 50-day moving average at $3321.10, with minor resistance at the $3310.48 pivot.

A failure to clear this resistance band could draw renewed selling, with the next key downside target at the $3228.38 pivot. If this level gives way, watch for a retest of the retracement zone between $3166.46 and $3087.70, where the May 15 bottom at $3120.76 sits as a downside magnet for bearish momentum traders.

At 10:18 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3286.85, up $12.67 or +0.39%.

Dollar Weakness Supports Gold Prices as Fed Rate Cuts Eyed

Gold gains were supported as the U.S. dollar index hovered near a three-year low, with broad weakness against the yen, euro, and Swiss franc. A softer dollar makes bullion more attractive to non-dollar holders, adding a tailwind for gold prices.

Investor focus remains locked on upcoming U.S. jobs data, including ADP employment figures Wednesday and non-farm payrolls Thursday, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate path. Markets are currently pricing in 65 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, with CME FedWatch showing a 91.5% probability of a September cut.

Trump Pressure on the Fed and Spending Bill Add to Rate Cut Bets

President Trump has renewed calls for lower interest rates, stating he would not appoint a Fed chair opposed to rate cuts and suggesting a reduction to 1% from current levels. This political pressure, combined with Treasury yields edging lower—10-year yields dipping to 4.255%—keeps the rate cut narrative alive.

Trump’s massive spending bill, projected to add over $3.9 trillion to the national debt, is moving through the Senate, with the White House pushing for passage before July 4. Meanwhile, trade optimism continues after Canada scrapped its digital services tax and the U.S. and China advanced agreements, feeding additional downward pressure on the dollar.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Bias Hinges on 50-Day MA Break

The near-term tone for gold will hinge on trader reaction to the 50-day moving average at $3321.10. A decisive break and hold above this level could open the path toward higher highs, supported by dollar weakness, potential Fed rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties.

Conversely, failure to clear resistance could spark renewed selling toward the $3228.38 pivot and deeper into the $3166–$3087 zone. Overall, the bias leans bullish for gold prices forecast, with external factors aligning to support upward momentum if technical barriers are cleared in the coming sessions.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.