The gold market continues to see a lot of noisy trading, as the market has been bullish recently, but at this juncture, the market is also near a lot of downward pressure. This is a “buy on the dips” scenario.
The gold market has been positive in the early hours on Thursday as we continue to press to the upside. But quite frankly, I think we are in an area that might be a little bit difficult to get above without a push. We’ve gotten fairly weak inflation numbers coming out of the United States, and that may have a little bit of an influence here. But quite frankly, with the US dollar getting hit as hard as it did in the early hours, I’m a little surprised that gold hasn’t taken advantage of this. So perhaps that correlation is starting to fade a bit. With this being the case, I am looking at gold with a buy on the dip mentality. I don’t necessarily think that you want to short gold.
I just think that it’s possible that it’s going to be very noisy along the way. Ultimately, I do think that we will get back to the $3,500 level, but it’s probably going to take some work to get there. So, with that in mind, I would be somewhat cautious here, I would prefer to see a move towards the $3,300 level that then bounces, that I could take advantage of. If we don’t get that, we could race towards the $3,500 level. But for me, it’s obvious there’s a lot of resistance up here and we just need some type of bigger announcement or bigger statement or something to get gold moving.
I really don’t have any interest in shorting this market, but if we broke down below 3,200, we’d have to start to rethink some things, with $3,000 underneath being what I consider the actual floor in the market where we have to look at the overall trend and see if it’s holding. Right now, though, the odds still favor the upside. I just think we’re kind of stuck at the moment.
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Christopher Lewis is an experienced trader that specializes in technical analysis and markets prediction. Chris has over 20 years of experience across a wide variety of markets and assets - currencies, indices, and commodities.