Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Bullish Momentum Holds as Prices Near $2,685 Resistance

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward trajectory on Thursday, nearing the $2,681 mark, just shy of its all-time high. This rally marks the third consecutive day of gains, driven primarily by expectations of interest rate cuts from major central banks and rising geopolitical uncertainties.

Investors are flocking to the safe-haven asset, with the market closely watching developments in both economic policy and global tensions.

US Dollar Strength and Central Bank Demand Support Gold

Despite gold’s strength, the US dollar remains firm, hovering near its highest levels since early August. The stability in the dollar is largely due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will take a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in the coming months.

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month, which has already pushed US bond yields to their lowest in over a week. Meanwhile, central banks around the world continue to accumulate gold, a trend emphasized at the London Bullion Market Association’s annual conference.

This persistent demand from central banks is supporting gold prices, even as investors await key US economic data, including Retail Sales and Weekly Jobless Claims, to identify short-term trading opportunities.

Economic and Geopolitical Factors Driving Gold Prices

Economic factors also play a crucial role in gold’s rally. The recent decline in crude oil prices is expected to ease inflation pressures, giving central banks more flexibility to cut interest rates. The European Central Bank is set to deliver its third rate cut this year, while a drop in UK inflation has heightened expectations for the Bank of England to follow suit in November.

On the geopolitical front, tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets like gold. While market participants are closely monitoring these developments, they are also keeping an eye on China’s urbanization efforts, which could influence global economic sentiment.

With central bank policies and geopolitical risks shaping market conditions, gold’s near-term outlook remains bullish as investors seek stability amid uncertainty.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold’s upward momentum remains intact, with prices holding above $2,666.86. A break above $2,685.60 could lead to further gains, while strong support exists around $2,653.29.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,681.69, up by 0.31% for the day. The price is holding above the key pivot point at $2,666.86, signaling continued bullish momentum. If gold manages to break through the immediate resistance at $2,685.60, we could see further gains toward the next targets of $2,697.75 and $2,710.54.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $2,653.29, with further support at $2,637.94 and $2,626.73.

Technical indicators show the 50-day EMA at $2,660.61 and the 200-day EMA at $2,637.79, both reinforcing the bullish trend. As long as gold stays above $2,666.86, the upward trend is likely to continue.