Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Drops Below 50-Day MA, Bearish Pressure Builds

Gold fell sharply below key dynamic trend support on Friday, reaching a 21-day low of $3,256. It looks set to close in a weak position, below two trendlines and near the lows of the day. A bearish continuation was established with a lower daily high and lower low. Baring a late-day rally, gold will close below three-week support at $3,295, thereby confirming a bearish signal on the weekly timeframe. Also, today will be the first daily close below the 50-Day MA since it was reclaimed in early-January. That is another early sign of weakness, and it could lead to lower prices.

What Happens Next is Key

Nonetheless, gold remains above support of a declining trendline and above a prior interim swing low of $3,245, which is part of the price structure of the short-term uptrend. A drop below that level would further confirm bearish price behavior. Gold has been declining for 10 days and therefore has exceeded previous pullbacks in time since the early-November 2024 bearish correction. That is an indication of sellers dominating but also a sign that the pullback is getting closer to possibly completing. However, if the decline exceeds 12 days, as seen in November, a deeper correction may be in the works.

Remains in Monthly Consolidation Pattern

It is also interesting to note that the market seems to be recognizing support around the intersection of two rising and one falling trendlines around $3,272. Gold is currently trading around that price level and therefore could close at it or slightly above. When stepping back gold can be seen in a consolidation phase for the past two months or so. This can be seen relatively clearly on a monthly chart (not shown).

For most of June the price of gold has remained with the price range of May, which is within the price range of April. Therefore, June looks likely to complete two inside months. Although June exceeded May’s high briefly, the breakout quickly failed. Moreover, June’s closing price looks likely to be near the low of the month, which is today’s low of $3,256.

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