Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will Geopolitical Risks Sustain Oil’s Risk Premium?

Market Overview

Oil prices eased on Friday as hurricane-related risks in the Gulf of Mexico receded, reducing concerns over disruptions to U.S. crude production. At the same time, market analysts are closely watching how broader geopolitical tensions could impact energy supplies globally.

While recent global trade data shows reduced demand in China and rising U.S. inventories, analysts suggest that political shifts may bring only moderate changes to supply fundamentals in the near term.

This mix of easing weather threats and geopolitical uncertainties adds nuanced pressure to the energy market outlook for the coming months.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices are trading at $2.80, with a slight uptick of 0.04%, as it hovers around a key level. The pivot point at $2.71 is crucial here—if prices dip below this, it could signal a bearish trend, with support levels to watch at $2.66 and $2.62.

Conversely, holding above $2.71 may attract more buyers, pushing prices towards immediate resistance at $2.76 and potentially further to $2.82 or $2.86.

Technical indicators show the 50-day EMA at $2.71 and the 200-day EMA at $2.69, hinting at a balance but tilting bullish if $2.71 holds. Traders will be watching for a breakout above resistance or a fall below support to gauge the next move.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

USOIL is sitting at $71.78, down 0.46% and hovering just above a key pivot at $71.56. This level is pivotal; holding above it could keep the bulls engaged, with an eye on resistance at $72.60 and $73.18.

However, if prices slip below $71.56, we may see a sharper sell-off, with support zones at $70.70 and $70.20. The technical indicators are mixed, with the 50-day EMA at $71.39 and the 200-day EMA at $70.75, both providing a bit of cushion.

Overall, oil’s near-term direction hinges on whether it can stay above the pivot, as any move below could attract more selling interest from cautious traders.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL is trading at $75.13, down 0.49% and sitting just above a critical pivot point at $74.86. This level could be the deciding factor—holding above it may keep a bullish bias intact, with resistance levels ahead at $75.55 and $76.04.

A slip below $74.86, however, might bring about a sharper drop, with support at $74.20 and further down at $73.78.

The technical indicators are a bit mixed; the 50-day EMA sits close by at $75.01, while the 200-day EMA is at $74.34, adding a bit of foundational support. For now, all eyes are on that pivot, as any sustained move below it could trigger increased selling pressure.