Natural Gas News: Bearish Forecast Today as Prices Slip Below 200-Day MA

Natural Gas Slips Below 200-Day MA as Weather and Storage Data Pressure Prices

U.S. natural gas futures continued to trend lower on Friday, falling beneath the critical 200-day moving average for the second consecutive session. The benchmark July contract is now under pressure to hold technical support near $3.444, with a break of that level exposing $3.381. Price action suggests bearish control, as traders eye these levels as triggers for a possible accelerated selloff.

At 15:04 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading at $3.462, down $0.059 or -1.6%.

Is the 200-Day Moving Average Losing its Grip on Bulls?

The 200-day MA at $3.537 has now shifted from support to resistance, reinforcing bearish sentiment in the short term. While recapturing this technical level would indicate that selling pressure is easing, there’s no clear sign that buyers are actively defending it. Thursday’s close at $3.52 and Friday’s failure to rebound confirm that the market remains technically fragile, with sellers willing to press on if near-term support fails.

Will Cooler Weather Crush Summer Demand Expectations?

Weather remains a headwind for bulls. Updated forecasts from NatGasWeather and Commodity Weather Group show cooling across the central and eastern U.S. through early June. Highs in the 60s to 70s and widespread thunderstorms will limit early summer cooling demand, especially in key markets like Texas. The West remains hot, but it’s not enough to lift national demand, which is expected to stay light for at least the next seven days.

Does EIA’s Storage Build Reinforce Oversupply Risks?

Thursday’s EIA report confirmed a +101 Bcf injection for the week ended May 23, matching consensus but exceeding the five-year average of +98 Bcf. Storage now sits at 2,476 Bcf—93 Bcf above the five-year average and 316 Bcf below last year’s level. Dry gas production hit 106.2 Bcf/day (+3.7% y/y), while demand reached 69.0 Bcf/day (+4.2% y/y). LNG exports rose slightly, but total electricity output declined 4.4% y/y, highlighting weak power burn demand for gas.

Can LNG and Export Demand Offset Domestic Headwinds?

LNG flows to U.S. export terminals reached 14.4 Bcf/day, up 2.4% week-over-week, providing modest support. But global signals aren’t encouraging either. European gas storage was just 47% full as of May 26, well below the 58% five-year seasonal average. This suggests limited short-term uplift from overseas demand, keeping the U.S. market heavily reliant on domestic consumption and weather shifts.

Market Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Outlook

With technical momentum pointing lower and bearish catalysts stacking up—from subdued weather-driven demand to healthy storage builds—natural gas prices are likely to face continued downside pressure. Unless bulls reclaim the 200-day MA and weather patterns shift hotter, traders should brace for a retest of $3.381 and potentially deeper lows.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.