Natural Gas Price Analysis – Natural Gas Bounces to Show Signs of Life After Drop

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets have plunged during early trading on Tuesday, only to turn around and show signs of life as the market has been very choppy. Keep in mind that this time of year is typically very bearish for natural gas as temperatures rise in places like New York, Boston, Frankfurt, London, some of your bigger cities around the world that consume natural gas and use it for heat. So, as that catalyst peels off for the year, you typically see downward pressure. There is a little blip where we refill the storage tanks in the United States, which I believe just happened.

So now the question is, where do we go from here? There are concerns about a recession, although that’s looking less likely. So that might keep natural gas a little bit elevated. Nonetheless, I am more bearish than bullish. So, I do look for signs of exhaustion to sell into on shorter term charts. In the short term though, I think we are going to continue to dance around the 200 day EMA as well as the 50 day EMA, ultimately finding a reason to fall apart and go looking to the $3 level.

Anything below $2.80 opens up a trap door towards the $2 area. I don’t have a scenario in which I’m buying natural gas at the moment, unless of course something changes completely. Some of the tensions between Russia and the West continue to keep the market somewhat afloat, but keep in mind that the demand is starting to drop off, so I think that is somewhat counterbalanced at the moment.

Unless there is an external factor to really drive down the supply of natural gas or increase the demand, I think it still needs to prove itself on rallies, and at the first signs of hesitation, I’m willing to get short. This will probably be more of a choppy run lower than we had seen in the past few months, and quite frankly, multiple years preceding.

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