Oil News: 50-Day MA Caps WTI as OPEC+ Production Risks Cloud Short-Term Outlook

Oil Prices Forecast Constrained by Resistance Levels and Weak Catalysts

Light crude oil futures were slightly lower in Friday trade, with upside momentum capped by technical resistance at the 50-day moving average of $62.40 and a nearby short-term pivot at $62.59. Buyers appear reluctant to commit above these levels without a clear catalyst. The market’s current consolidation phase, lasting six sessions, signals caution as traders await the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for this weekend.

Should prices break through this resistance cluster, a swift test of the $64.19–$64.40 range becomes likely. Beyond that, the 200-day moving average at $66.66 would come into play as the next bullish target. On the downside, $59.51 serves as key support. This tight technical structure points to a market bracing for news that could tip sentiment decisively.

At 11:40 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $61.70, up $0.76 or +1.25%.

OPEC+ Output Hike Anticipated but Priced In

Brent and WTI contracts were on track for a second consecutive weekly loss, each down approximately 0.5%, as traders priced in the likelihood of another OPEC+ output hike. Market sentiment was dampened by media reports suggesting several delegates had already backed a production boost, potentially exceeding the prior 411,000 bpd increases seen at the last two meetings.

Commerzbank analysts noted that this anticipation has likely dulled any significant impact the official announcement might have. JPMorgan analysts added that a widening global surplus of 2.2 million bpd could force prices lower to trigger a supply response and rebalance the market. The OPEC+ gathering on Saturday—limited to eight key member states—may confirm these expectations or introduce an unexpected twist that could jolt prices.

U.S. Tariffs Inject Further Uncertainty Into Crude Markets

Adding to bearish pressure, oil prices dropped more than 1% on Thursday following a surprise legal development that kept sweeping U.S. tariffs in place. A federal appeals court temporarily reinstated the duties after they were blocked just a day earlier. These tariffs, dubbed “Liberation Day” measures by the Trump administration, have contributed to a more than 10% decline in oil prices since their announcement in early April.

Analysts caution that continued legal wrangling around U.S. trade policy will sustain an environment of uncertainty for crude demand forecasts. For now, the legal back-and-forth appears to be capping risk appetite among oil bulls.

Market Outlook: Bearish Bias Until OPEC+ Clarity Emerges

With technical resistance firmly in place, a growing global supply surplus, and unresolved U.S. trade tensions, the short-term outlook for oil remains bearish. Traders are likely to stay on the sidelines until OPEC+ delivers clear guidance on production policy. Unless the group surprises with a more moderate hike or signals restraint, further downside pressure is expected.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.