Silver (XAG) Forecast: Technical Setup Suggests Breakout Potential Above $30.54 Level

Silver Gains Traction, but $30.54 Pivot Remains Key

Silver prices edged higher on Tuesday, testing critical levels just below the $30.54 pivot. Hovering near the 50-day moving average (MA) at $30.39, the market has shown some resilience, but traders remain cautious. A breakout above these levels could trigger renewed buying, while failure to hold support may signal further downside risks.

A move above $30.54 would set the stage for silver to challenge resistance at $30.98, potentially opening the path to $31.81. On the downside, a break below the 50-day MA could accelerate selling pressure, targeting the 200-day MA at $30.08 and another pivot at $29.86.

At 15:48 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $30.30, up $0.10 or +0.33%.

Gold’s Strength Highlights Silver’s Struggles

While gold has maintained a strong upward trend in 2025, trading just below its all-time high of $2,790.17, silver has lagged. Gold has benefited from safe-haven demand amid a weaker U.S. dollar and falling Treasury yields, while silver faces headwinds tied to industrial demand. The Gold/Silver Ratio highlights this disparity, suggesting that silver is undervalued relative to gold.

Gold’s bullish momentum is underpinned by geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and expectations for steady Federal Reserve policy. A weaker dollar, which dropped 0.2% on Monday, has further boosted gold’s appeal to international buyers. With gold eyeing the $3,000 mark, its stability may offer some indirect support for silver prices.

Industrial Demand Pressures Silver

Silver’s performance is heavily influenced by industrial demand, particularly in China and the solar energy sector. Concerns over China’s economic growth, coupled with ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade policy, have weighed on sentiment. Additionally, President Trump’s tariffs on solar technology and uncertainty surrounding energy policies have introduced risks to silver’s long-term usage in green technologies.

These factors have tempered silver’s price recovery, even as gold remains well-supported by broader macroeconomic trends.

Fed Meeting to Drive Precious Metals

This week’s Federal Reserve meeting is a critical driver for both gold and silver markets. While a rate cut is unlikely, traders will focus on any signals regarding future monetary policy. A dovish tone could weaken the dollar further, boosting silver and gold.

For silver, maintaining support at the 50-day MA will be crucial. A move above $30.54 could ignite a rally toward $31.00 and beyond. Conversely, failure to hold these levels could lead to further declines toward $29.86.

Gold’s stability suggests that silver may find support in the safe-haven narrative, but industrial and policy uncertainties continue to weigh on the metal’s outlook. Traders should remain vigilant, particularly as Fed decisions and inflation data unfold.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.