Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Tariff Fears Drive Safe-Haven Demand, Bulls Eye $2,810 Resistance

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) extended its rally on Friday, hovering near $2,795, after reaching a record high during the Asian session. Investors continue to favor gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty, driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats on Mexico and Canada. The prospect of 25% tariffs on major U.S. trading partners is fueling concerns about inflation and global trade disruptions.

Additionally, expectations that protectionist policies could drive consumer prices higher have reinforced gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. However, gains have been tempered by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, as it recently paused rate cuts, marking a shift in monetary policy since its easing cycle began in September. The central bank’s cautious tone has led to a modest rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields, supporting the U.S. dollar’s strength, which in turn limits gold’s upside momentum.

Silver Faces Pressure as Treasury Yields Rise

Silver (XAG/USD) is experiencing headwinds, trading around $31.48, after hitting an intra-day low of $31.13. Unlike gold, silver is struggling to hold gains, largely due to the strengthening U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year yield has rebounded to 4.541%, reflecting investor caution amid persistent inflation concerns.

While silver also benefits from safe-haven demand, its performance remains closely tied to industrial activity, making it more vulnerable to economic slowdowns. The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain current interest rates has contributed to dollar strength, making non-yielding assets like silver less attractive.

Traders are now awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for further direction. A higher-than-expected reading could reinforce the central bank’s restrictive stance, adding pressure to silver prices.

Economic Data and Market Outlook

The latest U.S. GDP report showed 2.3% growth in Q4 2024, missing the 2.7% forecast and sharply lower than 3.1% in Q3, raising concerns about economic momentum. Despite slowing growth, unemployment claims dropped to 207K, signaling labor market resilience.

Meanwhile, Trump’s warning of 100% tariffs on BRICS countries if they attempt to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar has further fueled risk aversion. Investors are closely watching geopolitical developments and upcoming Chicago PMI data, which could provide insight into business sentiment and broader market trends.

Gold and silver remain sensitive to economic shifts, with inflation data likely to dictate the next market move.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains bullish above $2,799.75, but failure to hold could trigger a pullback toward $2,787.15. Silver struggles below $31.31, with further downside risks if support breaks.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,795.25, up 0.04%, as it consolidates near the $2,799.75 pivot level. The metal is struggling to hold its recent gains, with immediate resistance at $2,809.19 and stronger hurdles at $2,820.21. A breakout above these levels could spark further upside momentum, pushing prices toward fresh highs.

On the downside, support rests at $2,787.15, with a break lower exposing $2,778.97. The 50-day EMA at $2,768.33 offers a key support cushion, while the 200-day EMA at $2,727.59 signals broader strength.

Gold remains bullish above $2,799.75, but failure to hold this level may invite selling pressure, leading to a sharper pullback.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $31.48, down 0.52%, as it hovers near the $31.31 pivot level. The metal faces immediate resistance at $31.69, with a break above this level potentially driving prices toward $32.03.

However, bearish momentum is building, with support at $30.96, and a drop below this level could accelerate declines toward $30.58.

The 50-day EMA at $30.82 is offering near-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $30.49 underpins the broader trend. Silver remains bullish above $31.31, but if prices fail to hold, sellers may take control, triggering a deeper pullback.