The Day Ahead: Markets Eye GDP, Jobless Claims, and Nike Earnings Today

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures are modestly higher Thursday as the S&P 500 flirts with record territory. S&P 500 Index futures are up 0.21%, Nasdaq 100 futures are gaining 0.31%, and Dow futures are ahead by 72 points (+0.17%).

Momentum is being supported by upbeat earnings reactions in after-hours trading. Micron (MU) surged nearly 4% after beating on both earnings and guidance, boosting chip sentiment. H.B. Fuller (FUL) jumped over 6%, and MillerKnoll (MLKN) rallied 9% on strong sales. Meanwhile, Kratos (KTOS) slid nearly 7% after announcing a $500M share offering, and Jefferies (JEF) fell 2% on an earnings miss.

Wednesday’s cash session saw the S&P 500 close unchanged, the Nasdaq add 0.3%, and the Dow fall 0.3%. With all three indexes on track for weekly gains, today’s data-heavy session and earnings from Nike will help determine whether futures can break through major resistance levels.

Key Economic Releases

12:30 GMT – Final Q1 GDP (q/q)
• Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -0.2%
Confirms negative growth; no revision expected but still relevant to recession chatter.
12:30 GMT – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
• Forecast: 244K | Previous: 245K
Markets will key in on labor momentum and rate-cut implications.
12:30 GMT – Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m)
• Forecast: +0.1% | Previous: +0.2%
12:30 GMT – Durable Goods Orders (m/m)
• Forecast: +8.6% | Previous: -6.3%
Headline boosted by aircraft orders; core is more indicative of real business investment.
12:30 GMT – Final GDP Price Index (q/q)
• Forecast: +3.7% | Previous: +3.7%
12:30 GMT – Goods Trade Balance
• Forecast: -$86.3B | Previous: -$87.0B
12:30 GMT – Preliminary Wholesale Inventories (m/m)
• Forecast: +0.2% | Previous: +0.2%
14:00 GMT – Pending Home Sales (m/m)
• Forecast: +0.2% | Previous: -6.3%
14:30 GMT – EIA Natural Gas Storage
• Forecast: +88B | Previous: +95B

Notable Earnings

Before the Opening Bell:
• WBA (Walgreens Boots Alliance): Est. EPS $0.33 – Dow component; relevant to retail/healthcare positioning.
• MKC (McCormick): Est. EPS $0.65 – Food and staples inflation sensitivity.
• AYI (Acuity): Est. EPS $4.34 – Capex proxy.
• LNN (Lindsay Corp): Est. EPS $1.40
After the Closing Bell:
• NKE (Nike): Est. EPS $0.12, Revenue: $10.7B (-15.1% YoY)
– Dow name under pressure YTD. Analysts highlight soft brand demand and tariff exposure.
• CNXC (Concentrix): Est. EPS $2.75

Central Bank Activity
• 12:30 GMT – FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks
• 12:45 GMT – FOMC Members Barkin and Daly Speak
• 13:00 GMT – FOMC Member Hammack Speaks
• 17:15 GMT – FOMC Member Barr Speaks
Markets will track tone for alignment with Powell’s inflation vigilance. Commentary may sway bond markets if tied to growth or policy outlook.

Commodities, Crypto, and Bonds

U.S. Treasury yields remain sensitive to labor and inflation signals amid a busy speaker schedule. Energy markets await the natural gas storage report, with inventory build likely to anchor near-term price ranges. No outsized volatility in gold or crypto noted premarket.

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 Index Futures: Testing Key Resistance Near Record High

Futures are trading near 6,167.25, just shy of resistance at 6,288.75. Support is located at 5,969.37 (200-day SMA), then 5,860.1 (50-day SMA), and 5,959.00 (swing level).

Nasdaq 100 Futures: Eyeing Breakout at Multi-Month Highs

Futures are pushing toward 22,873.25 resistance, with price currently at 22,566.25. Support lies at 21,175.53 (200-day SMA), then 21,027.0 (50-day SMA), and 21,566.75 (swing level).

Dow Jones Futures: Pinned Below Critical Resistance

Dow futures are hovering at 43,420, still capped below 43,516 resistance. A break above would open a test of the 46,326 swing high. Support is anchored at 43,462 (200-day SMA), 42,071.8 (50-day SMA), and 42,088 (swing level).

Outlook

Thursday’s action hinges on a dense economic slate and multiple Fed speeches. With the S&P and Nasdaq futures pressing into major resistance levels, jobless claims and durable goods will shape rate path expectations. Nike’s post-close results add a key inflection point for Dow sentiment heading into quarter-end.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.