Trump Or Harris: Who’s Better For Oil Markets?

Oil traders, who have recently focused on Middle East tensions and China’s economic reports, will soon have a new catalyst to watch – U.S. elections. Who is better for oil markets, Trump or Harris? Let’s take a look.

Trump

Trump has traditionally supported the U.S. oil and gas industry. Most likely, his administration would encourage an additional increase in oil production and promote LNG exports.

The recent EIA report showed that U.S. is producing 13.5 million bpd. Back in March 2024, ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance said that U.S. domestic oil production will exceed 14 million bpd and then plateau. A Trump administration would encourage U.S. producers to move above the 14 million bpd level to boost U.S. energy security.

Trump is also expected to put additional pressure on China. The country has not fully recovered after the coronavirus pandemic, which had a negative impact on its demand for oil. The stimulus measures did not lead to tangible results.

If Trump puts material pressure on the Chinese economy, China’s demand for energy would be lower. Rising production and lower demand from China are bearish for WTI oil and Brent oil.

Harris

The key question for traders is whether Harris will simply maintain Biden’s policy in the energy space. At first glance, it looks that Harris will keep promoting clean energy to fight climate change, which is important for her voters.

However, it should be noted that Biden policy did not prevent domestic oil production from rising towards the 13.5 million bpd level. Harris said that she supported high oil and gas production as it kept energy prices low during energy transition.

At this point, there are no signs indicating that Harris will make significant changes to the current energy policy that could have a major impact on oil and gas markets.

The continuation of the current political line towards China will also put pressure on the country’s economic growth and demand for oil, although Trump is expected to be more hawkish than Harris.

Overall, oil price dynamics will depend on global supply/demand dynamics and potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. Harris will likely stay close to the current policy, at least at the start of her term. Trump may create additional downside risks by boosting domestic oil production and putting significant pressure on the Chinese economy.

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