Trump vs Harris Standoff is Here: Where Will Bitcoin Head Right After US Elections?

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Published: Nov 5, 2024, 03:50 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Bitcoin historically rallies after U.S. presidential elections, averaging 670% gains in the six months following the vote.
Analysts predict Bitcoin will retest or surpass previous all-time highs post-election, with targets ranging from $79,000 to as high as $140,000.
If Bitcoin fails to hold $65,000 support amid election volatility, analysts suggest a "buy-the-dip" opportunity at around $62,300.

Bitcoin (BTC) traders are becoming cautious of the long-awaited Donald Trump versus Kamala Harris standoff in the Nov. 5 United States presidential elections. However, market veterans are already predicting a boom for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, irrespective of who takes the White House next.

Bitcoin Rises By 670% Average Six Months After US Elections

The US presidential elections have occurred in the same years as that of Bitcoin Halvings—a pre-programmed event that happens roughly every four years in which the supply of BTC gets slashed by half.

Pseudonymous analyst Cuban highlighted the same to its 75,000 followers on X ahead of the polls, noting that Bitcoin rises by an average of 23% after a month, 105% after three months, and a whopping 470% after three months of the US elections.

“So, regardless of the winner of the rat race, the market loves certainty, and I don’t expect this year to be any different,” Cuban argued, adding that traders should “bet more.”

Bitcoin performances after US elections. Source: Cuban

Analyst Dona agrees that Bitcoin will set a new record high right after the US election, at least reaching the $79,000-$82,000 zone, adding:

“Optimistic target will be $98K, and euphoric is somewhere between $105,000-$140,000 unless we have two major runs in Q1 2025 and Q4 2025.”

Her bullish outlook, however, rests on certain Bitcoin technical indicators.

For instance, in past cycles (2016-2017 and 2020-2021), Bitcoin struggled near its previous all-time high, consolidating just below it before breaking out to new highs.

The same pattern appears to be repeating in November 2024, with Bitcoin “knocking at the doors” of the previous peak in the $69,000–$74,000 range.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: Dona

Meanwhile, in the 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 cycles, the MACD indicator turned green (positive histogram) as Bitcoin approached previous highs, signaling a bullish momentum shift.

This shift coincided with explosive price increases after Bitcoin broke its all-time high.

Bitcoin’s ‘Worst Case Scenario’ Amid Election Volatility

Independent analyst Wolf argues that Bitcoin’s inability to hold the $65,000 support—which is also the Polymarket’s gamblers’ favorite target this election season—could trigger a broader price decline.

Bitcoin daily price chart. Source: Wolf

“If the 65-66k support doesn’t hold and the election dip becomes more pronounced, the 62.3k level will be a clear buy-the-dip opportunity,” he noted.

About the Author

Bob MasonChief Crypto Boss

TEST 30 He has written extensively for a broader audience and his current focus is on developments relating to the financial markets including, but not limited to currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.