US Dollar Price Forecast: Manufacturing PMIs in Focus— Gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Outlook

U.S. Dollar Softened as Fed Signals More Rate Cuts; Gold Gains

The U.S. dollar softened after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated more rate cuts are likely, though the Fed will proceed cautiously. As a result, gold prices saw support, rising above $2,630 amid increased safe-haven demand.

Key economic data, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings, will be released today and could further impact the USD and gold prices.

Analysts expect the ISM Manufacturing PMI to reach 47.6 and job openings to decline slightly to 7.64 million. Any sign of economic weakness could strengthen gold’s bullish momentum and apply additional pressure on the dollar.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis 

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $100.804, up 0.05% in early trading but remains below its pivot point of $100.841. The index faces strong resistance around this level, forming a potential triple-top pattern, which suggests that any bullish momentum could struggle to break through.

Immediate resistance is seen at $101.054, with further targets at $101.233 and $101.473 if the index gains strength. On the downside, support is noted at $100.624, aligning with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A break below this level could signal more selling pressure toward $100.391 and $100.168. The short-term outlook is bearish below $100.841, but a breakout above could shift the bias back to bullish.

Gold Technical Forecast

Gold is trading at $2,638.45, up 0.18%. It holds above key support at $2,630.95 but remains below its pivot point of $2,641.87.

Resistance at $2,649.83 and the 50-day EMA at $2,647.21 may cap gains, while a break below $2,630.95 could lead to further declines.

Sterling Steady as UK GDP Rises; Manufacturing PMI in Focus

The British pound remained stable after the UK’s Q2 GDP rose 0.6%, beating expectations of 0.5%. Meanwhile, the current account deficit widened to -£28.4 billion, adding to concerns about the economy’s resilience.

Today, investors will focus on the Final Manufacturing PMI, expected at 51.5, and comments from MPC Member Pill. His remarks could provide insights into future monetary policy, influencing the pound’s direction against other major currencies.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

The GBP/USD is trading at $1.33754, slightly up by 0.03% today. The pair is hovering just above its pivot point at $1.33622, which has held as a solid support level.

A symmetrical triangle pattern is forming, suggesting potential for a breakout in either direction.

Immediate resistance is noted at $1.34023, while a move above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.33755 could push the pair higher toward $1.34297.

On the downside, support is seen at $1.33348 and $1.33117. A break below these levels may lead to further declines toward $1.32799, aligning with the 200-day EMA.

The short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish above $1.33622, but a breach below could trigger a bearish move.

Euro Steady Amid Mixed PMI Data; CPI Estimates in Focus

The euro held steady as German CPI data remained flat at 0.0%, missing the 0.1% forecast. Manufacturing PMI figures showed mixed results, with Spain’s PMI rising to 53.0, while Italy and France lagged at 48.3 and 44.6, respectively.

Investors now await the Eurozone’s Core CPI Flash Estimate, expected at 2.7%. A higher-than-expected reading could boost the euro by signaling inflationary pressures, influencing the European Central Bank’s future policy decisions.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.11371, up a modest 0.04% during today’s session. The pair is holding above its pivot point at $1.11267, which has been providing solid support. An ascending trendline indicates the potential for further buying momentum if the price stays above this level.

Immediate resistance is seen at $1.11557, aligning with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A break above this could push the pair higher to $1.11818 and possibly $1.12091.

On the downside, support is found at $1.11046. A drop below this level could trigger more selling pressure toward $1.10827. Overall, the outlook remains cautiously bullish above $1.11267, but the pair needs to clear $1.11557 to confirm an uptrend.