What Will The 2024 U.S Presidential Election Outcome Mean for Gold Prices?

Gold Prices on High Alert as US Presidential Election Promises Unprecedented Uncertainty

This week will not only see the biggest macro trading event of the year – the U.S Presidential Election, but also the Federal Reserve and Bank of England’s latest interest rate decisions alongside – China widely expected to announce an extra $1.4 trillion in monetary stimulus to revive its fragile economy.

Taking front and centre stage this week will undoubtedly be the outcome of the 2024 U.S Presidential Election.

Historically, U.S Elections are known to be extraordinary macro trading events that are certain to move the Gold market significantly – largely due to political uncertainty and the potential for shifting economic policies.

There is no denying that the lead up to the 2024 U.S Presidential Election has been nothing short of eventful – marked by two assassination attempts, a candidate switch, divisive rhetoric and warnings about the fate of democracy.

And let’s not forget UK’s ruling Labour party, accused of “foreign interference” and illegal foreign campaign contributions to Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris’ campaign.

A Golden Opportunity: How the US Presidential Election Will Shape the Market Narrative

Looking ahead, the big question now is: How will a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris victory shape the market narrative for the rest of the year and beyond?

Regardless of whoever wins the U.S Presidential Election on November 5 – the fact, that both candidates are proposing inflationary policies, guarantees to unleash one of the most bullish backdrops for Gold prices ahead, the world has ever seen!

According to data compiled by GSC Commodity Intelligence – the firm’s analysts forecast that if Kamala Harris wins the presidency and implements her policies, she could add as much as $5.1 trillion to U.S debt, lifting the debt-to-GDP ratio to 137%.

On the flipside, however, should Donald Trump win with his agenda, he could add an estimated $6.4 trillion to U.S debt and increase the debt-to-GDP ratio to 142%.

Interestingly, there is a strong correlation between U.S debt and Gold prices. Conclusive evidence shows during the period U.S national debt has ballooned from $5 trillion to $35 trillion – Gold prices have risen by 10x since 2000. That’s a staggering gain of over 826% since the beginning of the century.

But here’s where things really start to get interesting. If history repeats itself, Gold prices could reach $5,000 an ounce when U.S debt hits the $70 trillion mark.

Whichever way you look at it, one thing is clear. The stars appear to be aligning for Gold, which suggests that this secular bull market is only just getting started!