WTI Crude Oil Nears $68 on China’s Stimulus and Strong Retail Sales Data

China’s fresh stimulus plan has pushed WTI crude oil (CL) prices near $68.00. The plan aims to increase incomes, reduce financial burdens, and enhance consumption. Since China is the world’s largest oil importer, higher domestic spending could drive stronger demand for crude. Additionally, China’s retail sales data met expectations with a 4% rise in February, as shown in the chart below. This reinforces optimism in the oil market. Increased consumer spending signals economic growth, which could sustain higher oil consumption.

However, geopolitical factors impact the oil market and keep the markets uncertain. Investors await peace talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. The discussions will focus on a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine, following Ukraine’s agreement to a 30-day truce. Any progress toward de-escalation could stabilize global energy markets and ease supply concerns. However, continued uncertainty in the region may keep oil prices volatile.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s policy decision is another key event for oil traders. The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% for the second consecutive time. A stable rate environment may support risk appetite in financial markets, indirectly benefiting commodities like oil. If the Fed signals a dovish stance, the US dollar could weaken, making oil more attractive for international buyers. Traders will closely monitor the Fed’s outlook for further price direction.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

Oil Daily Chart – Bearish Trend

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows the price consolidating at the support zone after breaking below the triangle pattern, highlighted by the red dotted lines. The price remains under bearish pressure, and a continuation of bearish momentum from the orange zone may trigger further selling pressure. As long as the price remains below $72.50, it will likely continue lower.

Oil 4-Hour Chart – Falling Wedge Pattern

The 4-hour chart for WTI crude oil shows the price consolidating within a falling wedge pattern around $67. The RSI is also consolidating around the mid-level, indicating price uncertainty. A break below $65.50 will signal further downside for WTI crude oil. However, $70.50 remains the resistance for this rebound.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Cup and Handle Pattern

The daily natural gas (NG) chart shows the price trading within an ascending channel after breaking out from the cup and handle pattern. This breakout, followed by consolidation within the ascending channel, indicates a bullish price structure. However, the price has hit the target zone of $5 within this channel, suggesting a potential price correction.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Ascending Channel

The ascending channel on the daily chart is also visible on the 4-hour chart, showing that the price has remained within this channel since September 2024. Price action indicates a potential correction within this ascending channel, with support around $3.50.

US Dollar Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows it remains under bearish pressure and is looking to break below the 103.50 area. A break below this support could trigger another drop to the 100.65 zone. The 50-day SMA has turned negative, while the RSI indicates oversold conditions, suggesting a potential rebound.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Bearish Pressure.

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows that it is correcting lower after breaking from the ascending broadening wedge pattern. This pattern indicates strong volatility and a break below 103.50 will trigger further selling pressure in the US Dollar Index.