Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Trade Tariffs Fuel Safe-Haven Demand for Gold

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) remained stable above $2,900 on Thursday, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and ongoing tariff uncertainties. The precious metal is benefiting from a weakening US dollar, as recent economic data raised concerns over slowing job growth.

The ADP employment report showed that the US private sector added just 77,000 jobs in February, well below the forecasted 140,000, reinforcing speculation that the Fed may lower interest rates to cushion the economy.

While lower rates typically boost gold’s appeal, a broader risk-on sentiment in global markets has tempered gains. Investors have been hesitant to take aggressive bullish positions as stock markets recover from recent losses. However, analysts note that gold’s safe-haven demand remains intact due to lingering economic uncertainty.

Silver Struggles Despite Weak Dollar and Economic Concerns

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $32.50, slightly off its session low of $32.48, as traders weigh shifting economic sentiment. The metal has found some support from a weaker US dollar, but improved risk appetite is capping gains. Investors remain cautious ahead of key US economic data, including Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could further influence market sentiment.

Despite short-term fluctuations, silver’s long-term appeal as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty remains strong. Market watchers note that any unexpected weakness in US job data could strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts, potentially boosting demand for both gold and silver.

Trade Tariffs Drive Safe-Haven Demand for Precious Metals

Gold’s safe-haven appeal continues to be reinforced by escalating trade tensions. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff measures, including a 25% levy on imports from Mexico and Canada and increased duties on Chinese goods, have fueled concerns about a prolonged economic slowdown.

In response, Canada retaliated with tariffs on $100 billion in US products, while China imposed up to 15% duties on key US agricultural exports.

While some relief came from the White House’s decision to delay certain auto-related tariffs under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), uncertainty remains. If trade disputes escalate further, gold could gain additional support, offsetting the recent pressure from rising investor risk appetite.

Market Eyes Key US Data for Next Gold Price Move

Traders are closely watching upcoming economic reports to gauge gold’s next move. Thursday’s Weekly Jobless Claims report could offer fresh insights into labor market health, while Friday’s NFP report is expected to provide key direction for Federal Reserve policy expectations.

If job growth falls short of forecasts, it could add momentum to rate cut bets, further boosting gold and silver.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold holds above $2,900 as traders await key US job data, while silver faces resistance near $32.72. Tariff uncertainties and Fed rate cut bets drive market sentiment.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is holding steady at $2,917.14, reflecting a cautious yet bullish sentiment as traders assess market conditions. The price remains above the key pivot point at $2,912.17, reinforcing near-term optimism. Technical indicators support the bullish outlook, with the 50-day EMA at $2,904.55 and the 200-day EMA at $2,893.77, both providing a solid foundation for further upside movement.

Immediate resistance is set at $2,930.12, and a breakout above this level could push gold toward $2,949.14, strengthening bullish momentum. However, failure to hold above the pivot point may expose the metal to a drop toward $2,884.23 and further to $2,878.61.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $32.50, showing modest gains but struggling to break above key resistance levels. The price remains below the pivot point at $32.72, signaling near-term caution. A break above this level could fuel bullish momentum, pushing silver toward $33.11 and $33.40.

The 50-day EMA at $32.00 and the 200-day EMA at $31.95 suggest underlying support, but a downward trendline is capping gains, making it a hurdle for buyers. Immediate support sits at $32.10, with a deeper drop potentially testing $31.53.

For now, silver remains in a consolidation phase, awaiting a catalyst to break either way. A push past $32.72 could shift sentiment bullish, while failure to hold current levels may invite further downside pressure.