Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Crude Rally Pauses as Inflation Data Fuels Fed Speculation

Market Overview

WTI crude climbed above $68.75 per barrel, its highest in over two months, on renewed geopolitical tensions that reignited fears of supply disruptions. Market sentiment was further buoyed by a 3.6 million-barrel drop in U.S. crude inventories, exceeding the expected 2 million-barrel draw, signaling a tightening of supply.

Meanwhile, easing U.S.-China trade frictions supported demand expectations from the world’s top energy consumers. Softer U.S. inflation data added fuel to the rally by strengthening bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts as early as September.

Together, these forces underscore the energy market’s sensitivity to both geopolitical instability and macroeconomic shifts.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are attempting a recovery from $3.507 after a sharp drop, currently trading near $3.553. The price is facing resistance at a descending trendline and remains below both the 50 EMA ($3.599) and the 200 EMA ($3.661), indicating a bearish near-term momentum.

A breakout above $3.60 would be needed to flip sentiment and target $3.664 and $3.743 next. On the downside, if $3.507 fails to hold, support lies at $3.443. While there are signs of base-building, there’s still no strong bullish confirmation.

Price remains range-bound, and a clear move above the EMAs and trendline is required to signal a shift in direction. Until then, the bias remains cautious.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is retracing from its recent high of $68.98, with the price now hovering near $67.73 and testing both trendline support and the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $67.93. The broader uptrend remains intact, but short-term momentum is cooling after a sharp rally from $64.55.

A break below $67.29 could expose the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels at $66.77 and $66.24, respectively. The 50 EMA at $65.51 adds further support below. There is no clear reversal candle yet, but the slowing price action suggests a potential consolidation or pullback.

If bulls regain strength above $68.26, a retest of $68.98 and a possible push toward $69.70 could follow, keeping the bullish structure in play.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil is consolidating after reaching a high of $70.73, with current price action hovering near $69.24. The 23.6% Fibonacci level at $69.72 has capped the latest rally, while the 38.2% level at $69.09 is providing immediate support.

The price remains above the rising trendline, and the broader uptrend remains intact as long as Brent stays above the $68.59–$68.08 zone. The 50 EMA at $67.19 adds dynamic support on deeper pullbacks. While the recent candles reflect indecision, there’s no clear reversal pattern yet.

A break below $69.09 may trigger further downside toward the 50% Fib, while a reclaim of $69.72 could reopen the path to $70.73 and beyond. Momentum remains cautiously bullish.